2007 Mississippi Statewide Election Predictions
Right of Mississippi 2007 Predictions:
This is on record 7 days out, we have carefully studied all of these campaigns for nearly a year now and this is our best guess on the final outcome.
Governor: VERY SAFE GOP
Haley Barbour: 58.4%
John Arthur Eaves Jr: 41.6%
Lt. Gov: SAFE GOP
Phil Bryant: 56.1%
Jamie Franks: 43.9%
SOS: SAFE GOP
Delbert Hosemann: 55.9%
Rob Smith: 44.1%
Attorney General: SAFE DEM
Jim Hood: 55.3%
Al Hopkins: 44.7%
State Treasurer: VERY SAFE GOP
Tate Reeves: 60.1%
Shawn O’Hara: 39.9%
State Auditor: TOO CLOSE TO CALL/LEAN GOP
Stacey Pickering: 51.8%
Mike Sumrall: 48.2%
Insurance Commissioner: TOO CLOSE TO CALL/SLIGHT LEAN DEM
Gary Anderson: 51.0%
Mike Chaney: 49.0%
Commissioner of Agriculture: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Lester Spell: 40.4%
Rickey Cole: 39.5%
Les Riley: 20.1%
The 3 of us here at ROM personally called through our address books and got responses from about 50 voters, hardly a random sample but it helped us please feel free to discuss and disagree, things could change in the next week and we will show updates if we make them. Make your own scorecard and we can compare in a week.
-ROM
This entry was posted on October 30, 2007 at 9:07 pm and is filed under 2007 Prediction, Campaigns, Candidate Research, Delbert Hosemann, Democrats, Election MS 2007, Haley Barbour, Jim Hood, John Arthur Eaves, Les Riley, Lester Spell, Mississippi Secretary of State, Phil Bryant, Tate Reeves, Treasurer 07, mississippi 2007. You can subscribe via RSS 2.0 feed to this post's comments. You can comment below, or link to this permanent URL from your own site.
October 30, 2007 at 11:01 pm
Not too shabby fellas, this looks like a realistic outcome, some of the spreads are a little more than I think they might end up being. Of course that is all a function of voter turnout and there is no way to predict that.
Bravo for going on record and putting your reputation behind your analysis, most bloggers are too scared.
October 31, 2007 at 2:25 am
[...] . . . let’s just hope he’s wrong about the 5 to 8% and we even get in excess of the 20 % that Right of Mississippi ( a Conservative Republican site) is guessing. We can still win. Keep working ! ( the post about [...]
October 31, 2007 at 2:37 am
Do you really think Rickey will get fewer votes than every other Democrat including Shawn O’Hara?
Plus I’d say Riley gets 1/3 of your prediction.
I disagree on others, but that’s the biggest thing.
October 31, 2007 at 1:55 pm
Mathematics must not be taught these days @ USM. The prediction is a percentage of the total, not actual votes.
October 31, 2007 at 3:57 pm
Never said I was clairvoyant, I could be way off but I don’t think so. There is a lot of confusion in the AG commissioners race. I believe that Riley will take votes from both Spell and Cole. Truthfully it is the race I have paid the least attention to. Lets’ see your calls and we can discuss the differences. Mine are on record and being wrong on a couple is the chance you take for nailing a couple.
November 1, 2007 at 2:42 pm
If Riley gets 20% of the vote it will spell a loss for Spell. Riley won’t exactly be pulling from Cole’s base. Cole’s base is the ACLU’ers, the NAACP’ers and other hard core liberals. Being that Riley is the only true conservative in the race, I can’t see him holding Cole’s numbers down more than Spells.
November 4, 2007 at 4:43 am
You are probably right… I have no idea what is going to happen in that race at all. I am a lot more confident in all of my other calls.