This event was a huge success by all accounts, lots of the big players here… Of course when you have the Governor there it helps!!!
Thanks for sending this in! Keep them coming.
First ever Hat-Tip from ROM goes to Alan Lange at Mississippi Politics, I will do my own predictions for 07 later and hope to get down into to the legislative level. As far as state-wide predictions go, this is the best I have seen, well rooted in REALITY. Side note, personally I am rooting for some of these to be wrong but I am confident that Lange has created the most likely scenario.
Mississippi Politics (link)
Full Text after the Jump:
Governor: AL: Haley Barbour re-elected in a walk – and he will get 60%.
LT. Gov: AL- Bryant v. Ross in the primary is too close to call, but the winner will be the next Lieutenant Governor.
SOS: AL- Delbert Hosemann will be elected in a close primary (possibly a runoff) and a relatively easy general election.
AG: AL- The power of incumbency keeps Hood in office in a closer than expected contest.
Auditor: With Haley at the top of the ticket and Pickering’s name ID and political machine, Stacey Pickering will be your next Auditor.
AG Commissioner: The power of incumbency keeps Spell in office.
Insurance Commissioner: This race will likely come down to Dale vs. Chaney. Either way, Barbour wins
I just received a 60 second recorded phone call from John Arthur Eaves. As I scrambled to get my laptop open to transcribe the call I made a few mental notes. If anyone has a transcript please shoot it to me and I will update this broken and paraphrased copy.
“Hello my name is John Arthur Eaves and I am running for Governor.
I believe that our Government has lost his way and become beholden to special interest groups
(Then something about Education and how poorly we are doing, and how Mississippi children deserve much better)
It saddens me to know that our Governor has failed to protect our children from tobacco
When I hear that Mississippi is last in anything I know that “We can do better”
I have always believed that the best way to serve my creator is to serve others and that’s why I am running for Governor
I have spent my life representing hard-working God-fearing Mississippians
I’m john Arthur Eaves and I hope you will allow me to serve as your next governor”
Like I said this is paraphrased but you get the gist of it. What is surprising to me is the blatant rip off of Haley Barbour’s campaign slogan “we can do better” in my opinion using the phrase “we can do better” is not plagiarism of the Haley Barbour campaign but the use of this phrase clearly shows lack of imagination on the part of his campaign.
My opinion: Get your own slogan.
Mississippi campaigns are “working hard for the money” as they run up against the April 30th filing, I got my hands on a some fundraiser invitations from a few major campaigns. First off is this gem from an april 12th fundraiser in Vicksburg for Lt. Gov Candidate Charlie Ross.
I love fundraiser invites because they provide a little insight into who is snagging the big donors before filing reports are due. Quite a few big hitters on this one…
If anyone has any more, send them on and I will post them:
(click image to expand)
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE–April 12, 2007
Contact: Neil Forbes, Campaign Manager (601) 955-3366
MISSISSIPPI ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
ENDORSES PHIL BRYANT FOR LT. GOVERNOR
(Flowood, Miss.)—Today, the Mississippi Association of REALTORS announced their official endorsement of Phil Bryant for Lt. Governor.
At a news conference this morning, Chris Wilson, the President of the Mississippi Association of REALTORS made it official by stating “Today, on behalf of the 6,500 realtors statewide, I am pleased to announce the Mississippi Association of REALTORS’ endorsement of Phil Bryant for Lt. Governor. For the past 15 years, Phil Bryant has shown us his support through legislative action, community activity and by being a strong voice for our profession. As Lt. Governor, he will be able to expand his efforts to bring accountability to our state and will continue his work for responsible legislative efforts.”
Phil Bryant accepted the endorsement of the Mississippi Association of REALTORS saying “I am humbled and honored to receive this endorsement from the 6,500 real estate professionals across Mississippi. I appreciate their support and active involvement in my campaign, and I look forward to continuing my good working relationship with realtors as they help Mississippi’s economy grow.”
The Mississippi Association of REALTORS is the state’s largest business trade association representing more than 6,500 residential and commercial real estate professionals active in all phases of brokerage, development, property management and appraisal.
I am suprised to see anyone especially a PAC endorse in April, but MS Realtors have historically been notorious for going out on a limb, especially in the old days.
I am infatuated with this Lt. Gov Race, more to come.
IT’S ALL ABOUT THE MONEY IN MISSISSIPPI 2007
taken from April 2-8, 2007 • Mississippi Business Journal (hard copy)
Two statistics confront the candidates who have qualified for statewide elected offices in Mississippi: One: the general election candidate for each office in 2003 who spent the most money won the election. Two: the average vote in Mississippi for Democratic gubernatorial candidates over the previous five elections was 376,000 while the average vote for Democratic presidential candidates over the same period was 405,000. The average vote for Republican gubernatorial candidates over the previous five elections was 400,000 while the average vote for Republican presidential candidates was 546,000. Over the course of the last 20 years, Mississippi has grown more Republican voters than Democratic voters.
Governor: Considering these two statistics, and assuming the popular Haley Barbour will almost certainly spend more money than either of his two major Democratic opponents – former state senator Bill Renick or Jackson trial lawyer John Arthur Eaves Jr.– the incumbent governor is the favorite to be re-elected. The wild card is that Eaves has the personal checkbook to finance a seven-figure campaign, which could keep Barbour occupied in the fall.
Attorney General: Next in order of importance is the office of Attorney General. Without question, the only person who stands between Haley Barbour and control of most of state government is Jim Hood. The incumbent AG has made life difficult for Barbour on a variety of fronts, and Republicans have recruited a well respected Gulf Coast lawyer – AI Hopkins – to challenge him. This will be the race that pits trial lawyers against the Republican Party-tort reform-business lobbyist coalition. We know from internal polls that Hood is popular, so
Hopkins starts out behind the curve. It remains to be seen whether Hopkins’
North Mississippi roots and his National Guard connections – he was Assistant Adjutant General in the 1990s – can help him overcome Hood’s four-year head start.
Secretary 0f State: The Secretary of State’s seat is open for the first time since 1995. From a political party’s perspective, this race is important because the Secretary of State oversees elections. A Republican win in this office means the GOP will control the election machinery of state government, and readers of the MBJ will remember how helpful that control was to George W. Bush in
Florida in 2000. The Republican candidates are former Columbus mayor Jeffrey Rupp, state representative Mike Lott of Petal, and Jackson lawyer Delbert Hosemann, while the major Democratic candidates are former state senator Rob Smith and assistant Attorney General John Windsor. Smith has run statewide before while Hosemann has made competitive, albeit unsuccessful, runs for Congress. Windsor is from Northeast Mississippi, which always gives a Democratic candidate a boost, especially in the primary. Rupp recently left his post as mayor of Columbus with generally positive reviews to take a top administrative post at Mississippi State. Lott has been a vocal leader in anti-immigration legislation this year. Since none of these candidates is well known to the average voter, the outcome of this race will be determined by money the candidate who raises the most and spends the most wins. (more…)
Word is that Barack Hussein Obama will report $25 Million raised for the first quarter 2007, nearly equaling Hillary Clinton’s 26 Million dollar haul. Fund-raising is an important indicator of support. A virtual tie in fund-raising all but evaporates Clinton’s early front-runner status although a $10 million dollar transfer from her Senate campaign puts her total first quarter at $36 million.
It is reported that Obama will file with donations from as many as 100,000 donors.
On the Republican side: Among the Republican candidates, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was the top money-raiser with $23 million, Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani raised $15 million for the quarter, while Arizona Sen. John McCain posted $12.5 million. Giuliani leads the GOP field in national popularity polls, followed by McCain -AP
Donors in Federal Elections are limited by law to contributions of $2,300 for the primary election, but Clinton, Obama and some other candidates also have been raising money for the general election. That allows them to take another $2,300 from each donor, but the money has to be returned if they don’t win the nomination.
Edwards: $14 million
Richardson: $6 million
Dodd: $4 million
Brownback: $1.3 million
Biden: $1-2 million