Meet your next Secretary of State

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Will Bardwell over at <WillBardwell.com> Somehow found the above picture of Republican Nominee for Secretary of State and HEAVY favorite Delbert Hosemann, it is way too funny not to spread around.

Here is our take on this race: (more race breakdowns to follow)

Most Handicappers think “Gilbert” will win this race by double digits unless little known opponent Rob Smith has very strong fundraising success (which is unlikely). Delbert Hosemann has a ton of fresh statewide postitive name ID and an obviously gifted media team with Scott Howell & Company www.scott-howell.com (thanks to Sid Salter for that)

Most also believe that Rob Smith was victorious in the Democratic primary because his name was first on the ballot among 3 candidates that nobody had ever heard of, or because he had a common name, or because he was being pushed by the Trial Lawyer ticket sample ballot.

None of which will help him in the General Election, Hosemann likely has Double or Triple the Statewide Name ID as Smith. Hosemann will be first on the ballot, have TV ads and a real campaign. The Trial Lawyer ticket and 2 billboards will not be enough to even make Smith competitive.

Interestingly Hosemann and Smith also share the same regional base in Rankin county, a base and county that vote Republican. The shared base means Smith even lacks the ability to be competitive in his own backyard where he will be trounced. Try as I might I cannot come up with a scenario where Smith even gets his legs under him.

Lastly and probably most importantly Smith is against Voter ID which is very popular statewide, the media will probably frame this race as Pro Voter ID vs. Anti Voter ID and the conservative Democrats and Independents that Rob Smith would need to lock up will reject him for such a liberal viewpoint. Especially since Voter ID is coming anyway.

Early Analysis: Hosemann wins big 8-12% or more over Rob Smith who can only hope to not be embarassed by a finish that could possibly be much worse.

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Explore posts in the same categories: 2007 Prediction, Delbert Hosemann, Election MS 2007, mississippi 2007

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6 Comments on “Meet your next Secretary of State”

  1. skoalrider Says:

    Agreed, Simple math would say that Smith would need to spend 300 to 400 thousand more dollars than Hosemann to even catch up on Name ID. He will likely have to go negative early to stop Eggberts Momentum

  2. jojo again Says:

    May be closer than you think ROM but hosemann wins handily, my guess is 54% That picture is hilarious!! Looks like he lost a little hair since law school, Bardwell is famous for finding this kind of stuff thats why he is one of Mississippis best bloggers.

  3. Steve Rankin Says:

    “Englebert” was no doubt thinking about a Beach Boys song when that picture was taken.

    I agree that Hosemann will win handily, but I think Rob Smith is better known than you indicate, which is why he won the Democratic primary despite not spending a lot of money. Smith served several terms in the state Senate and was a committee chairman. He also ran for Congress in the 1996 Democratic primary, where he was clobbered by “John Eaves, Jr.” And, to be sure, Smith ran second to Gary Anderson in the 2003 Democratic primary for state treasurer.

    You say that “Voter ID is coming…” I hope you’re right, but don’t count on Judge Pepper’s order for voter ID being upheld on appeal. Voter ID as well as party registration are the legislature’s prerogatives, and no state has ever before been ordered to enact either one.

  4. Steve Rankin Says:

    I did a little research on Rob Smith. He served one term in the state House, followed by five terms in the Senate. He was chairman of the Senate Corrections Committee. His Senate district covered parts of Rankin, Simpson, Copiah, and Covington counties.

    I talked politics with Smith once during his first campaign for the Senate. He’s definitely a yellow-dog Democrat.

  5. rightofmississippi Says:

    Thats all fine and dandy Steve, but Rob won the primary against two guys with zero name ID, you dont have to have much name ID to beat someone with zero. I did a little research too (and some of it is REAL BAD) but I held it back because there is no reason to bash the guy when he is already going to lose bad. If he starts to gain momentum I might break some of it out. Although I dont want to because I hear he is a nice guy and he has good-looking daughters.

  6. Steve Rankin Says:

    Again, I expect Hosemann to win handily. But you said in your post that the Democratic primary consisted of “3 candidates that nobody had ever heard of…” I was simply pointing out that Rob Smith does have name ID, since he’s previously run statewide and for Congress.

    Smith went through a pretty nasty divorce, which I suspect is at least part of what you found in your research.

    I don’t have your e-mail address, ROM, so I’ll use this space to thank you for linking to my blog. I’m going to start a WordPress blog, after which I’ll set up a blogroll.


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