Red/Blue: Labor Day — Fall Campaign Scorecard

Red/Blue: Labor Day — Fall Campaign Scorecard

Labor Day — Fall Campaign Scorecard

When I first became involved in Mississippi politics, state and county elections were over by Labor Day weekend. That’s because not very many years ago, virtually every campaign for elected office in our state was decided in the Democrat primary. As recently as 1971, even on the rare occasions when there was a Republican or independent candidate on the ballot in November, all the Democrat nominee had to do was keep breathing in order be elected.

Now, as Jere Nash’s August 30 entry pointed out, a flurry of fall legislative campaign activity is cranking up after many candidates, both Democrat and Republican, have already had to endure primary battles in the brutal heat of the summer. I thought Nash offered a pretty fair analysis of the lay of the land in the legislative races in that post.
In the eight statewide races, I think the races break down into the following categories:

  • Republicans have the next best thing to a sure thing in the races for Governor and Treasurer.
  • Next, the Republican candidate is the clear favorite in each of the races for Secretary of State, Auditor and Insurance Commissioner.
  • Third, I believe the race for Lieutenant Governor is likely Republican.
  • Fourth, call the race for Ag Commissioner a toss-up.
  • Finally, as of today, I believe the race for Attorney General is likely Democrat.

Create your own score card and we’ll compare notes in November. I’ll update mine as the campaigns progress.

posted by Andy Taggart @ 10:31 AM

Andy Taggarts Analysis here seems to be pretty spot on, I may have a few changes but for the data that is available at this point he has done a good job materializing what has been mostly my gut feeling up to this point. -ROM

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Explore posts in the same categories: 2007 Prediction, Election MS 2007, mississippi 2007, Treasurer 07

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One Comment on “Red/Blue: Labor Day — Fall Campaign Scorecard”

  1. countryboydem Says:

    Taggart is not exactly clairvoyant.
    My opinion
    Safe Dem: AG
    Lean Dem: Agriculture, Insurance
    Toss Up: LG
    Safe GOP: GOV, Auditor, Treasurer, SOS

    If the Democrats pick their battles and dont spread themselves thin they can do better than most folks think. If they go all in (to borrow a poker term) on LG, Agriculture, and Insurance they can win them.


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