Archive for November 2007

Trent Lott to Step Down This Year!

November 26, 2007

Shocking news for Mississippi!

Politico is reporting that our beloved Trent Lott will step down at the end of this year, Barbour will appoint his replacement and a special election will need to be held in November 2008.  I believe this may cause havoc for quite a few elected officials, and cause more special elections down-ticket?

Who will it be Wicker or Pickering?

Politico (link) 

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Mike Huckabee and Chuck Norris

November 20, 2007

I am voting for Huckabee because of this ad alone!

-ROM 

ROM nails the statewide races with 4% Margin of Error

November 7, 2007

We are very proud of how we did in our “Pick em” challenge we NAILED the race for Governor within .3%

We went 7 for 8 on the winners picking Anderson to beat Chaney which obviously never happened

Listed are our predictions followed by actual outcome.  We did purty good I would say.

ROM PREDICTION:

Governor

Haley Barbour: 58.4%

John Arthur Eaves Jr: 41.6%

Actual:

Haley Barbour: 58.06%

John Arthur Eaves Jr: 41.9%

ROM CALL: CORRECT!!! WE NAILED THE GOVERNORS RACE

Missed it by just under 0.3%

 

Lt. Governor

Phil Bryant: 56.1%

Jamie Franks: 43.9%

Actual:

Phil Bryant: 58.7%

Jamie Franks: 41.3%

ROM Call: Correct!

Percentage: Missed on the tight side by 2.6%

Secretary of State

Delbert Hosemann: 55.9%

Rob Smith: 44.1%

Actual:

Delbert Hosemann: 58.6

Rob Smith: 41.4

ROM Call: Correct!

Percentage: Missed on the tight side by 2.7%

Attorney General

Jim Hood: 55.3%

Al Hopkins: 44.7%

Actual:

Jim Hood: 59.6%

Al Hopkins: 40.4%

ROM Call: Correct!

Percentage: Missed on the tight side by 4.3%

State Treasurer

Tate Reeves: 60.1%

Shawn O’Hara: 39.9%

Actual:

Tate Reeves: 60.7%

Shawn O’Hara: 39.3

ROM Call: Correct!

Percentage: NAILED THIS ONE TOO Missed on the tight side by 0.6%

State Auditor:

Stacey Pickering: 51.8%

Mike Sumrall: 48.2%

Actual:

Stacey Pickering: 55.2%

Mike Sumrall: 44.8%

ROM Call: Correct!

Percentage: Misssed on the tight side by 3.4%

Insurance Commissioner:

Gary Anderson: 51.0%

Mike Chaney: 49.0%

Actual:

Mike Chaney: 56.8%

Gary Anderson: 43.2%

ROM CALL: Incorrect…

Percentage: Underestimated Mike Chaney by 7.8%

Commissioner of Agriculture:

Lester Spell: 40.4%

Rickey Cole: 39.5%

Les Riley: 20.1%

Actual:

Lester Spell: 50.8%

Rickey Cole: 42.1%

Les Riley: 7.04%

ROM CALL: Correct

Percentage: Quite a bit off, I overestimated the beef plant effect on Spell and though it would push a larger chunk of his votes to Riley I underestimated Spell by 10.4%, was a lot closer on Cole who I only missed by 2.6%

ROM Goes 7 for 8 on 2007 Statewide Races with ON RECORD picks, our margins were closer to correct than any other on-record picks that we can find on the net. We had an average margin of Error on ALL PICKS of 4.08% OVERALL

As the years go on here at ROM we will continue this little exercise and keep a running tally

As it stands ROM’s pick em 2007 average is 88% correct on winners/losers with a 4.08% overall margin of error on the spread.

Not too shabby if we do say so ourself as we did pick 2 races dead on missing the exact percentage by less than 1%

How did ya’ll do?

-ROM 

Mississippi Statewide Results with 99% Reporting

November 7, 2007

Mississippi

November 07, 2007 – 12:50PM ET

Governor – General

1898 of 1899 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Barbour, Haley (i) GOP 415,103 58%

Eaves, John Dem 299,763 42%

Lieutenant Governor – General

1898 of 1899 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Bryant, Phil GOP 416,057 59%

Franks, Jamie Dem 292,333 41%

Secretary of State – General

1898 of 1899 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Hosemann, Delbert GOP 410,603 59%

Smith, Robert Dem 291,248 41%

Attorney General – General

1897 of 1899 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Hood, Jim (i) Dem 421,137 60%

Hopkins, Al GOP 285,357 40%

Auditor – General

1897 of 1899 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Pickering, Stacey GOP 385,243 55%

Sumrall, Mike Dem 312,048 45%

Treasurer – General

1897 of 1899 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Reeves, Tate (i) GOP 420,546 61%

O’Hara, Shawn Dem 272,327 39%

Agriculture Commissioner – General

1897 of 1899 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Spell, Lester (i) GOP 356,201 51%

Cole, Rickey Dem 295,021 42%

Riley, Paul CST 49,353 7%

Insurance Commissioner – General

1897 of 1899 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Chaney, Mike GOP 399,966 57%

Anderson, Gary Dem 304,677 43%

Public Service Comm – Central District – General

584 of 584 Precincts Reporting – 100%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Posey, Lynn Dem 117,273 50%

Barbour, Charles GOP 108,459 47%

Dilworth, Lee RP 6,706 3%

Public Service Comm – Southern District – General

683 of 685 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Bentz, Leonard (i) GOP 133,652 56%

Collier, Mike Dem 104,809 44%

Public Service Comm – Northern District – General

630 of 630 Precincts Reporting – 100%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Presley, Brandon Dem 128,670 58%

Murphree, Mabel GOP 94,791 42%

Transportation Comm – Central District – General

584 of 584 Precincts Reporting – 100%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Hall, Dick (i) GOP 121,452 52%

Warnock, Rudolph Dem 110,717 48%

Transportation Comm – Southern District – General

683 of 685 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Brown, Wayne (i) Dem 127,111 52%

Benefield, Larry GOP 115,151 48%

 

WOW! I will transpose these against my picks from last week and issue my own scorecard soon.

We didn’t do half bad!

-ROM 

A Historic Butt Whoopin

November 7, 2007

By Alan Lange

In 8 years, the State of Mississippi has gone from one statewide Republican elected official to seven. Haley Barbour led the charge with 58%+ of the vote in a top to bottom drumming of the Democratic Party of Mississippi. This can only fuel additional speculation of his inclusion on a Republican ticket as a Vice Presidential candidate.

A few random observations from the evening

Tate Reeves was the top statewide vote getter with 416K, followed closely by Jim Hood (415K), Phil Bryant (412K) and Haley Barbour (410K). Tate Reeves’ star continues to rise. Breaking that down further, it looks like the starting point for Democrats in statewide races is 267K votes or 39%, which is the percentage that Shawn O’Hara garnered. O’Hara spent about $1300 and had a D by his name. John Arthur Eaves, Jr., had 294K votes and spent millions. So the difference between the low water mark for Democrats and Eaves performance was about 27K votes or roughly $100 per vote. But for the millions he spent, Haley would have gotten to 60%, but it didn’t matter much.

Jim Hood has placed himself as the standard bearer of the Democratic Party for the State of Mississippi. Much like Elliot Spitzer (for AG and now Governor) of New York, it is hard to imagine that he won’t try to run for Governor in 2011 and would be the presumptive nominee on the Democratic side. In the meantime, he will have seven other relatively hostile statewide elected officials, who are likely all shopping for outside counsel today to represent the interests of their agencies in the absence of having the AG’s office as an advocate for them.

Delbert Hosemann, in an emotional victory speech, ended the night by pulling out his drivers license and saying something to the effect of “Y’all get ready . . . The push for Voter ID starts tomorrow” to a resounding roar from the crowd.

Lester Spell survived with just over 50% (as predicted here), and Stacey Pickering continues his elective service in the State Auditor’s office and will likely see his star rise as the years go by.

And, of course, David Hampton wasted no time in lamenting the defeat of Gary Anderson (again). By lamenting Anderson’s defeat as the defeat of the first potential statewide elected African American official, Hampton continues to miss one critical component. ANDERSON IS A HORRIBLE CANDIDATE. Though he was a state bureaucrat for many years and was somewhat qualified on paper, he is a poor campaigner and communicator. It isn’t that Mississippi isn’t ready to elect an African American as a statewide elected official . . . it’s that Mississippi is not ready to elect Gary Anderson (again). I doubt there will be any further mention of it, but that campaign loan from Anderson to his campaign will likely be cashed out here at some point behind the scenes.

And how unbelievably poetic that Dickie Scruggs gets personally involved by dumping several hundred thousand dollars in a race to politically assasinate George Dale only to have one of Barbour’s closest allies in Mike Chaney win that seat.

Legislature

In Phil Bryant’s new Senate. Democrats look like they have regained the majority by a 28-24 margin over the Republicans. There has been talk about a “nuclear option” which would entail vesting committee chair selection powers to the Pro-Tem that the Democrats will likely elect. However, the conventional wisdom is that there will be at least two or three conservative Democratic senators that will not go along with that plan. Interestingly, when the rules for the next session are set, Amy Tuck will preside. The bottom line is that Bryant should be able to retain committee chair selection ability and Haley will likely continue to swing a big stick in the State Senate.

On the House side, it is interesting. Both sides are tentatively claiming victory for Speaker. Billy McCoy is claiming he has 62 votes, but so is Jeff Smith. There is currently a race in House District 111 where Democrat Brandon Jones holds a 38 vote over Republican Tim Lee. That will be watched closely by both sides. There is likely to be an unbelievable amount of behind-the-scenes horse trading in the next 72 hours as both sides want to lock down their votes in writing. Freshman Representatives will hold a lot of power potentially by how they commit in this race. Certainly many current and newly elected Legislators will see the writing on the wall as the Republican juggernaut has moved through the state. With party reregistration looming, many may choose to party switch in the near future.

And, yes, the 3rd Congressional Race

Charlie Ross, David Landrum and Gregg Harper were all seen working the crowd. I am assuming that John Rounsaville was there, but I did not see him at the Marriot. That race is about to kick off right now, and it will be a dog fight for sure with those four and probably one more candidate.

Posted November 7, 2007 – 9:08 am

What are we hearing out there? Wilson vs. Brown having problems in 66

November 6, 2007

Please post anything you hear.

Apparently the Cory Wilson vs. Cecil Brown race has not been on the ballot for a lot of their people.

Depending on how close the race is we could see a challenge in District 66

I’m Stickin with Haley

November 6, 2007