Archive for the ‘2007 Prediction’ category

ROM nails the statewide races with 4% Margin of Error

November 7, 2007

We are very proud of how we did in our “Pick em” challenge we NAILED the race for Governor within .3%

We went 7 for 8 on the winners picking Anderson to beat Chaney which obviously never happened

Listed are our predictions followed by actual outcome.  We did purty good I would say.

ROM PREDICTION:

Governor

Haley Barbour: 58.4%

John Arthur Eaves Jr: 41.6%

Actual:

Haley Barbour: 58.06%

John Arthur Eaves Jr: 41.9%

ROM CALL: CORRECT!!! WE NAILED THE GOVERNORS RACE

Missed it by just under 0.3%

 

Lt. Governor

Phil Bryant: 56.1%

Jamie Franks: 43.9%

Actual:

Phil Bryant: 58.7%

Jamie Franks: 41.3%

ROM Call: Correct!

Percentage: Missed on the tight side by 2.6%

Secretary of State

Delbert Hosemann: 55.9%

Rob Smith: 44.1%

Actual:

Delbert Hosemann: 58.6

Rob Smith: 41.4

ROM Call: Correct!

Percentage: Missed on the tight side by 2.7%

Attorney General

Jim Hood: 55.3%

Al Hopkins: 44.7%

Actual:

Jim Hood: 59.6%

Al Hopkins: 40.4%

ROM Call: Correct!

Percentage: Missed on the tight side by 4.3%

State Treasurer

Tate Reeves: 60.1%

Shawn O’Hara: 39.9%

Actual:

Tate Reeves: 60.7%

Shawn O’Hara: 39.3

ROM Call: Correct!

Percentage: NAILED THIS ONE TOO Missed on the tight side by 0.6%

State Auditor:

Stacey Pickering: 51.8%

Mike Sumrall: 48.2%

Actual:

Stacey Pickering: 55.2%

Mike Sumrall: 44.8%

ROM Call: Correct!

Percentage: Misssed on the tight side by 3.4%

Insurance Commissioner:

Gary Anderson: 51.0%

Mike Chaney: 49.0%

Actual:

Mike Chaney: 56.8%

Gary Anderson: 43.2%

ROM CALL: Incorrect…

Percentage: Underestimated Mike Chaney by 7.8%

Commissioner of Agriculture:

Lester Spell: 40.4%

Rickey Cole: 39.5%

Les Riley: 20.1%

Actual:

Lester Spell: 50.8%

Rickey Cole: 42.1%

Les Riley: 7.04%

ROM CALL: Correct

Percentage: Quite a bit off, I overestimated the beef plant effect on Spell and though it would push a larger chunk of his votes to Riley I underestimated Spell by 10.4%, was a lot closer on Cole who I only missed by 2.6%

ROM Goes 7 for 8 on 2007 Statewide Races with ON RECORD picks, our margins were closer to correct than any other on-record picks that we can find on the net. We had an average margin of Error on ALL PICKS of 4.08% OVERALL

As the years go on here at ROM we will continue this little exercise and keep a running tally

As it stands ROM’s pick em 2007 average is 88% correct on winners/losers with a 4.08% overall margin of error on the spread.

Not too shabby if we do say so ourself as we did pick 2 races dead on missing the exact percentage by less than 1%

How did ya’ll do?

-ROM 

John Goodman’s Fearless Forcast and Hosemann endorsement

November 6, 2007

John Goodman’s Fearless Forcast (link)

Blogger John Goodman at PearlMississippiCPA has some good predictions out. We really enjoy his blog as a whole.

We are collecting blogger predictions here so we can go back and decide who gets the “ROM Pick’em award” for 2007, that will go to the blogger who most closely predicts Tomorrow’s outcome.

All that said we think that John Laid out the case for Mississippians to elect Delbert Hosemann tomorrow better than we ever could, and we have been trying since late July.  Mr. Goodman is an election commissioner and understands how elections are run, we feel this gives him a unique perspective on the SOS race and so we feel that his column on the race warrants a re-post.

-ROM

Saturday, October 20, 2007

Delbert Hosemann for Secretary of State

It is rare when a race for lower state offices has such a great contrast. Usually, it is Tweedledee versus Tweedledum. But that is not the case for the Secretary of State’s race. While I have been a very strong supporter of Secretary of State Eric Clark, perhaps one of the most honorable and decent men ever in Mississippi politics, he is not running for re-election. So the choice is between Republican Delbert Hosemann or Democrat Robert Smith.

I’m voting for Delbert Hosemann. I know him and I can tell you he is a fine person and is well-qualified for the post. He’s been active in local affairs and has been active in a lot of charitable organizations. I have listened to him on talk radio (WJNT 1180 rocks!) and he is very well-informed on election matters.

The main issue this race has is a very sharp contrast on the matter of voter ID. Hosemann is for voter ID; Smith is against it. This may shock Smith, but there is voter fraud in this state. Has he ever heard of Noxubee’s Democratic primary races? In Smith’s home county of Rankin, there were MORE votes for the liquor referendum in 1980 than there was in the Presidential race. There was a lot of talk of voter fraud, but nothing was ever done.

In the Laurel Leader Call of October 7, 2007, Smith said voter ID would stop people from voting. He said he was most concerned about elderly people voting in 2008 due to possible re-registration due to party affiliation. In the Hattiesburg American of September 19, 2007, Smith also stated many older black Mississippians say providing voter identification is a reminder of the Civil Rights Era when the state used poll taxes to keep blacks from voting.

Delbert Hosemann has responded that he has encountered very little opposition to voter ID. In the Biloxi Sun Herald he has stated he would make certain nobody would be left out from voting. He said 97% of the people in the state have a driver’s license. As for the other three percent, he would find some other form of identification for them. In the Laurel Leader Call of September 29, 2007, Hosemann said he would lead the fight to pass a state constitutional amendment voter ID program, which would ensure only citizens would vote.

Smith has also come up with a plan to bring all the circuit clerks and county election commissioners together and come up with a better plans and various plans to conduct elections. Newsflash Smith: HAVA (Help America Vote Act) throws cold water on such plans to conduct different modes of voting in various counties. You can’t use lever machines and punch card machines. 492 people CANNOT be in charge of elections (82 circuit clerks and 410 election commissioners). You can’t have different counties have different voting systems and performance levels. There is only one boss: The Secretary of State. If different counties have different voting systems, the Secretary of State can be hauled into Federal court for violating the equal protection clause. Has Smith even READ HAVA? When the county clerk messes up (and that has been known to happen), the citizens will be calling the Secretary of State’s office–not the circuit clerk.

(I’m a municipal election commissioner and I can tell you that office has radically changed since HAVA took effect. Other than conducting elections (not primaries–only general elections), the municipal election commissioners don’t do a thing. Before HAVA, we used to meet at least three times a year to clean up the voter rolls. Under HAVA, we can no longer do that.)

Smith has no plans for bringing Mississippi up to code with the Americans with Disabilities Act. He has gone on record saying we should have BOTH electronic and paper ballots for the voter to choose between. Is this guy NUTS? As an election commissioner, that would be total chaos. It is a recipe for disaster and total confusion. Does Rob Smith know ANYTHING about how an election is run? Is he ignorant or just plain stupid?

Smith is also not a friendly person. I have had people tell me he is cold and caustic when they dealt with him when he was in the State Senate. I’ve talked to him in the past and found him to be a cold, aloof individual. What happens when he has to deal with angry voters if he puts some of his nutty ideas into effect (If the Feds don’t stop him.)? Is he going to flip them off?

Hosemann is intelligent, friendly, well-informed, witty and a very hard worker. I know he will do an excellent job and continue the great work Secretary of State Eric Clark has done.

The choice is so easy even a caveman can do it: Please vote for Republican Delbert Hoseman for Secretary of State on November 6th.

CottonMouth makes some 2007 predictions (sort of)

November 6, 2007

*UPDATED*

LG – Bryant (After Franks has been buried by a pile of money)
SOS – Hosemann (More likable and far better run campaign)
Auditor – Pickering (Sadly. The name will beat the actual auditor)From our good friends at:

CottonMouth

STATEWIDE
You should watch the races for Governor, Attorney General, and Treasurer for big spreads.

Haley Barbour (R), Jim Hood (D) and Tate Reeves (R) will all win big.

The two races that will be nail bitingly close are the races for Agricultural Commissioner and Insurance Commissioner.

The race for Agricultural Commissioner features scandal-tainted party-switcher Lester Spell (R) and farmer and Democratic activist Rickey Cole (D).

The race for Insurance Commissioner features State Senator Mike Chaney (R) who has taken tens of thousands from insurance interests and former Mississippi Chief Financial Officer Gary Anderson (D). Anderson would be the first statewide African-American elected official.

I’ll add the state House and Senate races a little later.

David Hampton Predictions 2007

November 6, 2007

David Hampton Predictions

Hattip MS Smitty

I’ve tried not to make political predictions, since I predicted Jimmy Carter would beat Ronald Reagan in Mississippi. So many people cut that column out and sent it to me with the HA HA HA note, I think circulation went up. I kept them as a reminder not to do predictions in print. But I can’t help myself. Here goes:
Governor, Haley Barbour; Lt. Gov., Phil Bryant; Attorney General, Jim Hood; Sec. of State, Delbert Hosemann; Auditor, Stacey Pickering; Insurance Commissioner, Mike Chaney; Ag Commissioner, Lester Spell; Treasurer, Tate Reeves.
This is not our endorsement list, but who I think will win. Politics is not fair and the best person does not always win. But those not on the list can console themselves that I have a lousy track record for picking winners.

Natchez Blog 2007 Predictions

November 5, 2007

Natchez Blog Makes 2007 Predictions

I am trying to highlight everyone who is sticking their neck out and making predictions, good luck to everyone who is.

-ROM 

Columbus Dispatch Releases Statewide Endorsements

November 5, 2007

Columbus Commercial Dispatch Releases Statewide Endorsements 

Our choices (11/5)

Endorsements

Governor: Haley Barbour, Republican

Lt. Governor: Jamie Franks, Democrat

Sec. of State: Delbert Hosemann, Republican

Atty. Gen.: Jim Hood, Democrat

State auditor: Mike Sumrall, Democrat

State treasurer: Tate Reeves, Republican

Ag Comm.: Rickey Cole, Democrat

Ins. Comm.: Mike Chaney, Republican

With the statewide elections only a day away, it’s going to be up to the voters to sift through the candidates’ pitches and make their decisions, hopefully based on informed opinions.

The Commercial Dispatch has presented our readers with detailed information about the candidates for local, district and state offices. We done profiles on each local and area race and produced a voters’ guide on the local candidates before the first primary election.

We’ve had editorial board meetings with most of the state candidates and presented reports on those meetings for our readers. And we’ve seen them in public appearances.

Now, as yet another service to our readers, we’d like to present a slate of who we think are the best candidates for the top statewide offices:

Governor: Incumbent Republican Haley Barbour is the best choice, as we stated in an editorial in Sunday’s Dispatch. Barbour has proven his leadership and deserves another four years at the helm of our state.

Lieutenant governor: Democrat Jamie Franks is our choice for the state’s second highest elected office, for reasons we outlined in our Sunday editorial. We like Franks for his independent streak and bipartisan outlook. He will provide a check and balance for Barbour, who is the most powerful governor we can remember in Mississippi.

Secretary of state: Republican Delbert Hosemann deserves to be Mississippi’s next secretary of state. Hosemann, who undoubtedly has the best campaign ads this season, is not a career politician. He simply wants to serve Mississippians and clean up our elections.

Attorney general: Incumbent Democrat Jim Hood has done a good job and should have a second term in office.

State auditor: Although both candidates seem well qualified, Democrat Mike Sumrall, who has served 24 years in the state auditor’s office, is the better pick, based on his experience, in this closely fought race.

State treasurer: Republican Tate Reeves has been a good state treasurer and has only token competition from perennial candidate Shawn O’Hara. Reeves should be elected to a second term.

Commissioner of Agriculture and Commerce: We’d like to see Democrat Rickey Cole have a chance at this job. The nefarious beef plant has left a bad taste in Mississippian’s mouths when it come to the incumbent in the position and it’s time for a change in this office.

Commissioner of insurance: In the wake of the insurance mess created by Hurricane Katrina, Mississippi’s longest serving state office holder, George Dale was ousted from this office by Gary Anderson in the primary. We like both candidates in this race, but we think Republican Mike Chaney is the better choice for the prudent approach he promises to take in restabilizing the insurance industry in the state.

These are our picks for the top eight statewide offices. It’s a bi-partisan ticket, with four Democrats and four Republicans. We aren’t interested in supporting any particular party; we’re just looking for the best candidates to serve Mississippians for the next four years.

These are our suggestions, and now it’s up to you, the voters, to go to the polls and vote your convictions. The polls will be open Tuesday from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Vote responsibly.

Mississippi Students give us the best poll of Mississippi 2007 thus far

November 1, 2007

Mississippi Secretary of State’s “Promote the Vote” Program mock election results are in, visit the SOS website to see a list of participating schools, it is quite extensive and diverse.  Results of the statewide Mock Election for the top 4 statewide spots are as follows:

 

All Participating Schools

Governor Votes Pct
Haley Barbour (Republican) 17,457 63
John Arthur Eaves, Jr. (Democratic) 10,110 37
Total Votes Cast 27,567 100
Lieutenant Governor Votes Pct
Phil Bryant (Republican) 16,953 62
Jamie Franks (Democratic) 10,236 38
Total Votes Cast 27,189 100
Secretary of State Votes Pct
Delbert Hosemann (Republican) 15,677 59
Rob Smith (Democratic) 11,121 41
Total Votes Cast 26,798 100
Attorney General Votes Pct
Jim Hood (Democratic ) 14,204 53
Al Hopkins (Republican ) 12,782 47
Total Votes Cast 26,986 100

I am amazed I would say the percentages may be a touch closer but I am certain that they nailed the actual outcome 4 for 4.

-ROM 

2007 Mississippi Statewide Election Predictions

October 30, 2007

Right of Mississippi 2007 Predictions:

This is on record 7 days out, we have carefully studied all of these campaigns for nearly a year now and this is our best guess on the final outcome.

Governor: VERY SAFE GOP

Haley Barbour: 58.4%

John Arthur Eaves Jr: 41.6%

Lt. Gov: SAFE GOP

Phil Bryant: 56.1%

Jamie Franks: 43.9%

SOS: SAFE GOP

Delbert Hosemann: 55.9%

Rob Smith: 44.1%

Attorney General: SAFE DEM

Jim Hood: 55.3%

Al Hopkins: 44.7%

State Treasurer: VERY SAFE GOP

Tate Reeves: 60.1%

Shawn O’Hara: 39.9%

State Auditor: TOO CLOSE TO CALL/LEAN GOP

Stacey Pickering: 51.8%

Mike Sumrall: 48.2%

Insurance Commissioner: TOO CLOSE TO CALL/SLIGHT LEAN DEM

Gary Anderson: 51.0%

Mike Chaney: 49.0%

Commissioner of Agriculture: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Lester Spell: 40.4%

Rickey Cole: 39.5%

Les Riley: 20.1%

The 3 of us here at ROM personally called through our address books and got responses from about 50 voters, hardly a random sample but it helped us please feel free to discuss and disagree, things could change in the next week and we will show updates if we make them.  Make your own scorecard and we can compare in a week.

 -ROM

Delbert Hosemann had an ace in the hole, and his name is Simon

October 26, 2007

Frankly we didn’t expect to see another ad out of the Hosemann camp this year, lucky for the voters of Mississippi they had one more up their sleeve.

Hosemann’s new ad “Simon” looks to be a more serious (issue based/candidate in the camera) type, yet the production quality is great and they maintain the warm and positive feel that have brought their campaign this far.

We have yet to hear anything out of his Democratic opponent Rob Smith (I don’t expect to either as my Democratic campaign sources tell me that the Smith campaign has been a miserable failure)

The dog is an excellent idea, Hosemann seems to interact well when sharing the screen.

Many of the people I talk to on the street express that they are tired of negative ads, I happen to love them but that is just personal preference.  At the end of a campaign when there is nothing but mud on the screen, a positive ad campaign like this really stands out to us.

ROM Overall Grade: A

Why Rob Smith can NOT be Secretary of State Part 2

October 24, 2007

robsmith11112.jpg

***UPDATED 10/29***

Rob Smith told the Sun Herald on 10/27 that he favors “election day registration” can you imagine the chaos that would be election day if Rob Smith were to win, absolutely no ID or verification of who is voting, 2 totally different voting systems, the state wrapped up in countless lawsuits for discriminating against disabled people and noncompliance with federal HAVA standards as well as same day registration so candidates can bus folks from precinct to precinct (or from out of state) letting them vote over and over again in as many polls as they can get to on election day.

Seriously folks you better vote against this guy if you want your vote to ever count again.

Hattiesburgamerican.com – Hattiesburg, Miss.

The Hattiesburg American Editorial Board was obviously as confused as I was when listening to Rob Smith’s rambling and incoherent interview that included such gem quotes as “I don’t want to talk about that issue because I don’t want to wind up on the front page of the paper and cause me to not be elected Secretary of State -Rob Smith Hattiesburg American Interview 2007”

The Hattiesburg American endorsed Delbert Hosemann for Secretary of State over Rob Smith and wrote the following article:

Hosemann for secretary of state

Two strong candidates are running for Secretary of State. Rob Smith, 56, Democrat, left the state Legislature in 2004 after serving a total of 24 years. He lost a bid to become state treasurer in 2003.

He was chairman of the Senate Agriculture and Corrections committees.

He is a Realtor in Richland.

Delbert Hosemann, 60, the Republican candidate, is an attorney with Phelps Dunbar in Jackson and specializes in tax law and is also a real estate developer.

He has been active in non-profits and is on several boards.

Both men had good ideas, especially regarding the management of 16th Section lands but we believe Hosemann would bring a fresh approach that would benefit the citizens of Mississippi.

Hosemann is a staunch advocate of voter reform. He would appoint a task force to work with the Legislature on passing a voter ID bill that would be constitutional and enforceable.

He would offer additional training for pollworkers and county circuit clerks. He supports early voting and would change where absentee ballots are presently kept.

He says he would be vigilant against voter intimidation and would make sure that any reports of voter intimidation – the flip side of the voter ID argument – are thoroughly investigated.

Hosemann would work to establish a business court that would “rejuvenate” how state businesses deal with each other. This promises to be a much more efficient system than what we have now. Business cases now get bogged down in circuit court. The court would be funded by filing fees paid by businesses.

Hosemann also wants to get an accurate inventory of 16th Section land. He wants to collect data that would allow schools boards to have comparative information.

Voter ID continues to be my number one issue in 2007 I will be voting straight Republican for Governor, Lt. Governor and Secretary of State. My endorsements will be out this week and they will not be straight Republican. Although I am committed to making sure that Rob (I pander to anyone who will listen) Smith gets beat.

-ROM