Travis Childers: Ya Just Can’t Trust him

We all remember where we were that fateful day when John Kerry proclaimed he voted for the Iraq funding bill before he voted against it and it seems that the tune Travis Childers is singing to is, “I actually was endorsed by Barack Obama…before I wasn’t endorsed by him”. It’s utterly shameful that Childers claims he’s being “attacked” just because he was called out on trying to squirm around the fact that YES, he was endorsed by uber-liberal Barack Obama.

We all know that Obama’s coattails, or perhaps, the lack thereof, is going to seriously damage any Democratic candidate’s hope of getting elected to Congress, but the sing and dance he’s doing is quite comical and the people of Mississippi’s First Congressional District deserve better.

Let’s take a trip down memory lane, shall we?

MONDAY, APRIL 21, 2008: Barack Obama’s campaign puts out a blast e-mail to all of his supporters to support Travis Childers in the special election. It advertises how they can conduct phone banking efforts where they live to help Childers.

TUESDAY, APRIL 22, 2008: The Special Election occurs and since neither candidate received the necessary 50%, it goes to a runoff.

FRIDAY, APRIL 25, 2008: Republican candidate Greg Davis uses Obama and his controversial pastor, Jeremiah Wright in a television spot which shows that Obama and Childers are out of touch with Mississippi values.

MONDAY, APRIL 28, 2008 – MAY 1, 2008: Childers claims he never received an endorsement from Barack Obama and uses that for the theme of his latest ad. He goes so far as to say linking him to Obama is an “attack”.   Wow, and I thought Childers was a Democrat.

Travis Childers can run, but he can’t hide …

Desperate.  That’s the only word that can truly describe what’s going on at Camp Travis. He is spending his entire piggy bank on an attempt to shake Barack Obama’s endorsement.

But don’t take it from us.  It’s covered here, here, here, here and here – just to name a few.

-ROM

ROM nails the statewide races with 4% Margin of Error

We are very proud of how we did in our “Pick em” challenge we NAILED the race for Governor within .3%

We went 7 for 8 on the winners picking Anderson to beat Chaney which obviously never happened

Listed are our predictions followed by actual outcome.  We did purty good I would say.

ROM PREDICTION:

Governor

Haley Barbour: 58.4%

John Arthur Eaves Jr: 41.6%

Actual:

Haley Barbour: 58.06%

John Arthur Eaves Jr: 41.9%

ROM CALL: CORRECT!!! WE NAILED THE GOVERNORS RACE

Missed it by just under 0.3%

 

Lt. Governor

Phil Bryant: 56.1%

Jamie Franks: 43.9%

Actual:

Phil Bryant: 58.7%

Jamie Franks: 41.3%

ROM Call: Correct!

Percentage: Missed on the tight side by 2.6%

Secretary of State

Delbert Hosemann: 55.9%

Rob Smith: 44.1%

Actual:

Delbert Hosemann: 58.6

Rob Smith: 41.4

ROM Call: Correct!

Percentage: Missed on the tight side by 2.7%

Attorney General

Jim Hood: 55.3%

Al Hopkins: 44.7%

Actual:

Jim Hood: 59.6%

Al Hopkins: 40.4%

ROM Call: Correct!

Percentage: Missed on the tight side by 4.3%

State Treasurer

Tate Reeves: 60.1%

Shawn O’Hara: 39.9%

Actual:

Tate Reeves: 60.7%

Shawn O’Hara: 39.3

ROM Call: Correct!

Percentage: NAILED THIS ONE TOO Missed on the tight side by 0.6%

State Auditor:

Stacey Pickering: 51.8%

Mike Sumrall: 48.2%

Actual:

Stacey Pickering: 55.2%

Mike Sumrall: 44.8%

ROM Call: Correct!

Percentage: Misssed on the tight side by 3.4%

Insurance Commissioner:

Gary Anderson: 51.0%

Mike Chaney: 49.0%

Actual:

Mike Chaney: 56.8%

Gary Anderson: 43.2%

ROM CALL: Incorrect…

Percentage: Underestimated Mike Chaney by 7.8%

Commissioner of Agriculture:

Lester Spell: 40.4%

Rickey Cole: 39.5%

Les Riley: 20.1%

Actual:

Lester Spell: 50.8%

Rickey Cole: 42.1%

Les Riley: 7.04%

ROM CALL: Correct

Percentage: Quite a bit off, I overestimated the beef plant effect on Spell and though it would push a larger chunk of his votes to Riley I underestimated Spell by 10.4%, was a lot closer on Cole who I only missed by 2.6%

ROM Goes 7 for 8 on 2007 Statewide Races with ON RECORD picks, our margins were closer to correct than any other on-record picks that we can find on the net. We had an average margin of Error on ALL PICKS of 4.08% OVERALL

As the years go on here at ROM we will continue this little exercise and keep a running tally

As it stands ROM’s pick em 2007 average is 88% correct on winners/losers with a 4.08% overall margin of error on the spread.

Not too shabby if we do say so ourself as we did pick 2 races dead on missing the exact percentage by less than 1%

How did ya’ll do?

-ROM 

Mississippi Statewide Results with 99% Reporting

Mississippi

November 07, 2007 – 12:50PM ET

Governor – General

1898 of 1899 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Barbour, Haley (i) GOP 415,103 58%

Eaves, John Dem 299,763 42%

Lieutenant Governor – General

1898 of 1899 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Bryant, Phil GOP 416,057 59%

Franks, Jamie Dem 292,333 41%

Secretary of State – General

1898 of 1899 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Hosemann, Delbert GOP 410,603 59%

Smith, Robert Dem 291,248 41%

Attorney General – General

1897 of 1899 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Hood, Jim (i) Dem 421,137 60%

Hopkins, Al GOP 285,357 40%

Auditor – General

1897 of 1899 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Pickering, Stacey GOP 385,243 55%

Sumrall, Mike Dem 312,048 45%

Treasurer – General

1897 of 1899 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Reeves, Tate (i) GOP 420,546 61%

O’Hara, Shawn Dem 272,327 39%

Agriculture Commissioner – General

1897 of 1899 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Spell, Lester (i) GOP 356,201 51%

Cole, Rickey Dem 295,021 42%

Riley, Paul CST 49,353 7%

Insurance Commissioner – General

1897 of 1899 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Chaney, Mike GOP 399,966 57%

Anderson, Gary Dem 304,677 43%

Public Service Comm – Central District – General

584 of 584 Precincts Reporting – 100%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Posey, Lynn Dem 117,273 50%

Barbour, Charles GOP 108,459 47%

Dilworth, Lee RP 6,706 3%

Public Service Comm – Southern District – General

683 of 685 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Bentz, Leonard (i) GOP 133,652 56%

Collier, Mike Dem 104,809 44%

Public Service Comm – Northern District – General

630 of 630 Precincts Reporting – 100%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Presley, Brandon Dem 128,670 58%

Murphree, Mabel GOP 94,791 42%

Transportation Comm – Central District – General

584 of 584 Precincts Reporting – 100%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Hall, Dick (i) GOP 121,452 52%

Warnock, Rudolph Dem 110,717 48%

Transportation Comm – Southern District – General

683 of 685 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Brown, Wayne (i) Dem 127,111 52%

Benefield, Larry GOP 115,151 48%

 

WOW! I will transpose these against my picks from last week and issue my own scorecard soon.

We didn’t do half bad!

-ROM 

A Historic Butt Whoopin

By Alan Lange

In 8 years, the State of Mississippi has gone from one statewide Republican elected official to seven. Haley Barbour led the charge with 58%+ of the vote in a top to bottom drumming of the Democratic Party of Mississippi. This can only fuel additional speculation of his inclusion on a Republican ticket as a Vice Presidential candidate.

A few random observations from the evening

Tate Reeves was the top statewide vote getter with 416K, followed closely by Jim Hood (415K), Phil Bryant (412K) and Haley Barbour (410K). Tate Reeves’ star continues to rise. Breaking that down further, it looks like the starting point for Democrats in statewide races is 267K votes or 39%, which is the percentage that Shawn O’Hara garnered. O’Hara spent about $1300 and had a D by his name. John Arthur Eaves, Jr., had 294K votes and spent millions. So the difference between the low water mark for Democrats and Eaves performance was about 27K votes or roughly $100 per vote. But for the millions he spent, Haley would have gotten to 60%, but it didn’t matter much.

Jim Hood has placed himself as the standard bearer of the Democratic Party for the State of Mississippi. Much like Elliot Spitzer (for AG and now Governor) of New York, it is hard to imagine that he won’t try to run for Governor in 2011 and would be the presumptive nominee on the Democratic side. In the meantime, he will have seven other relatively hostile statewide elected officials, who are likely all shopping for outside counsel today to represent the interests of their agencies in the absence of having the AG’s office as an advocate for them.

Delbert Hosemann, in an emotional victory speech, ended the night by pulling out his drivers license and saying something to the effect of “Y’all get ready . . . The push for Voter ID starts tomorrow” to a resounding roar from the crowd.

Lester Spell survived with just over 50% (as predicted here), and Stacey Pickering continues his elective service in the State Auditor’s office and will likely see his star rise as the years go by.

And, of course, David Hampton wasted no time in lamenting the defeat of Gary Anderson (again). By lamenting Anderson’s defeat as the defeat of the first potential statewide elected African American official, Hampton continues to miss one critical component. ANDERSON IS A HORRIBLE CANDIDATE. Though he was a state bureaucrat for many years and was somewhat qualified on paper, he is a poor campaigner and communicator. It isn’t that Mississippi isn’t ready to elect an African American as a statewide elected official . . . it’s that Mississippi is not ready to elect Gary Anderson (again). I doubt there will be any further mention of it, but that campaign loan from Anderson to his campaign will likely be cashed out here at some point behind the scenes.

And how unbelievably poetic that Dickie Scruggs gets personally involved by dumping several hundred thousand dollars in a race to politically assasinate George Dale only to have one of Barbour’s closest allies in Mike Chaney win that seat.

Legislature

In Phil Bryant’s new Senate. Democrats look like they have regained the majority by a 28-24 margin over the Republicans. There has been talk about a “nuclear option” which would entail vesting committee chair selection powers to the Pro-Tem that the Democrats will likely elect. However, the conventional wisdom is that there will be at least two or three conservative Democratic senators that will not go along with that plan. Interestingly, when the rules for the next session are set, Amy Tuck will preside. The bottom line is that Bryant should be able to retain committee chair selection ability and Haley will likely continue to swing a big stick in the State Senate.

On the House side, it is interesting. Both sides are tentatively claiming victory for Speaker. Billy McCoy is claiming he has 62 votes, but so is Jeff Smith. There is currently a race in House District 111 where Democrat Brandon Jones holds a 38 vote over Republican Tim Lee. That will be watched closely by both sides. There is likely to be an unbelievable amount of behind-the-scenes horse trading in the next 72 hours as both sides want to lock down their votes in writing. Freshman Representatives will hold a lot of power potentially by how they commit in this race. Certainly many current and newly elected Legislators will see the writing on the wall as the Republican juggernaut has moved through the state. With party reregistration looming, many may choose to party switch in the near future.

And, yes, the 3rd Congressional Race

Charlie Ross, David Landrum and Gregg Harper were all seen working the crowd. I am assuming that John Rounsaville was there, but I did not see him at the Marriot. That race is about to kick off right now, and it will be a dog fight for sure with those four and probably one more candidate.

Posted November 7, 2007 – 9:08 am

What are we hearing out there? Wilson vs. Brown having problems in 66

Please post anything you hear.

Apparently the Cory Wilson vs. Cecil Brown race has not been on the ballot for a lot of their people.

Depending on how close the race is we could see a challenge in District 66

John Goodman’s Fearless Forcast and Hosemann endorsement

John Goodman’s Fearless Forcast (link)

Blogger John Goodman at PearlMississippiCPA has some good predictions out. We really enjoy his blog as a whole.

We are collecting blogger predictions here so we can go back and decide who gets the “ROM Pick’em award” for 2007, that will go to the blogger who most closely predicts Tomorrow’s outcome.

All that said we think that John Laid out the case for Mississippians to elect Delbert Hosemann tomorrow better than we ever could, and we have been trying since late July.  Mr. Goodman is an election commissioner and understands how elections are run, we feel this gives him a unique perspective on the SOS race and so we feel that his column on the race warrants a re-post.

-ROM

Saturday, October 20, 2007

Delbert Hosemann for Secretary of State

It is rare when a race for lower state offices has such a great contrast. Usually, it is Tweedledee versus Tweedledum. But that is not the case for the Secretary of State’s race. While I have been a very strong supporter of Secretary of State Eric Clark, perhaps one of the most honorable and decent men ever in Mississippi politics, he is not running for re-election. So the choice is between Republican Delbert Hosemann or Democrat Robert Smith.

I’m voting for Delbert Hosemann. I know him and I can tell you he is a fine person and is well-qualified for the post. He’s been active in local affairs and has been active in a lot of charitable organizations. I have listened to him on talk radio (WJNT 1180 rocks!) and he is very well-informed on election matters.

The main issue this race has is a very sharp contrast on the matter of voter ID. Hosemann is for voter ID; Smith is against it. This may shock Smith, but there is voter fraud in this state. Has he ever heard of Noxubee’s Democratic primary races? In Smith’s home county of Rankin, there were MORE votes for the liquor referendum in 1980 than there was in the Presidential race. There was a lot of talk of voter fraud, but nothing was ever done.

In the Laurel Leader Call of October 7, 2007, Smith said voter ID would stop people from voting. He said he was most concerned about elderly people voting in 2008 due to possible re-registration due to party affiliation. In the Hattiesburg American of September 19, 2007, Smith also stated many older black Mississippians say providing voter identification is a reminder of the Civil Rights Era when the state used poll taxes to keep blacks from voting.

Delbert Hosemann has responded that he has encountered very little opposition to voter ID. In the Biloxi Sun Herald he has stated he would make certain nobody would be left out from voting. He said 97% of the people in the state have a driver’s license. As for the other three percent, he would find some other form of identification for them. In the Laurel Leader Call of September 29, 2007, Hosemann said he would lead the fight to pass a state constitutional amendment voter ID program, which would ensure only citizens would vote.

Smith has also come up with a plan to bring all the circuit clerks and county election commissioners together and come up with a better plans and various plans to conduct elections. Newsflash Smith: HAVA (Help America Vote Act) throws cold water on such plans to conduct different modes of voting in various counties. You can’t use lever machines and punch card machines. 492 people CANNOT be in charge of elections (82 circuit clerks and 410 election commissioners). You can’t have different counties have different voting systems and performance levels. There is only one boss: The Secretary of State. If different counties have different voting systems, the Secretary of State can be hauled into Federal court for violating the equal protection clause. Has Smith even READ HAVA? When the county clerk messes up (and that has been known to happen), the citizens will be calling the Secretary of State’s office–not the circuit clerk.

(I’m a municipal election commissioner and I can tell you that office has radically changed since HAVA took effect. Other than conducting elections (not primaries–only general elections), the municipal election commissioners don’t do a thing. Before HAVA, we used to meet at least three times a year to clean up the voter rolls. Under HAVA, we can no longer do that.)

Smith has no plans for bringing Mississippi up to code with the Americans with Disabilities Act. He has gone on record saying we should have BOTH electronic and paper ballots for the voter to choose between. Is this guy NUTS? As an election commissioner, that would be total chaos. It is a recipe for disaster and total confusion. Does Rob Smith know ANYTHING about how an election is run? Is he ignorant or just plain stupid?

Smith is also not a friendly person. I have had people tell me he is cold and caustic when they dealt with him when he was in the State Senate. I’ve talked to him in the past and found him to be a cold, aloof individual. What happens when he has to deal with angry voters if he puts some of his nutty ideas into effect (If the Feds don’t stop him.)? Is he going to flip them off?

Hosemann is intelligent, friendly, well-informed, witty and a very hard worker. I know he will do an excellent job and continue the great work Secretary of State Eric Clark has done.

The choice is so easy even a caveman can do it: Please vote for Republican Delbert Hoseman for Secretary of State on November 6th.

CottonMouth makes some 2007 predictions (sort of)

*UPDATED*

LG – Bryant (After Franks has been buried by a pile of money)
SOS – Hosemann (More likable and far better run campaign)
Auditor – Pickering (Sadly. The name will beat the actual auditor)From our good friends at:

CottonMouth

STATEWIDE
You should watch the races for Governor, Attorney General, and Treasurer for big spreads.

Haley Barbour (R), Jim Hood (D) and Tate Reeves (R) will all win big.

The two races that will be nail bitingly close are the races for Agricultural Commissioner and Insurance Commissioner.

The race for Agricultural Commissioner features scandal-tainted party-switcher Lester Spell (R) and farmer and Democratic activist Rickey Cole (D).

The race for Insurance Commissioner features State Senator Mike Chaney (R) who has taken tens of thousands from insurance interests and former Mississippi Chief Financial Officer Gary Anderson (D). Anderson would be the first statewide African-American elected official.

I’ll add the state House and Senate races a little later.