Archive for the ‘Glenn McCullough’ category

MS-01 A Tale of Two MEMORANDUMS

April 11, 2008

Both the Davis Campaign and the Childers Campaign have released Polling Memos in the last 2 days, I dont feel the need to comment on them, they are pasted verbatim below so yall can make your own judgements as to which pollster might be closer to what is really going on up there.

-ROM

MEMORANDUM
TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM:PATRICK LANNE — PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
SUBJECT:RECENT MS-1 POLL RESULTS
DATE:APRIL 10, 2008

Public Opinion Strategies recently conducted a district-wide survey of 300 likely special election voters for your campaign. The poll was conducted on April 3, 2008 and has a margin of error of +/- 5.66% in 95 out of 100 cases. The purpose of this memo is to review some of the key findings of that poll as well as the recently released poll completed by Travis Childers’ campaign.

Key Findings

Myth#1: The Republican primary has hurt Greg Davis.
Myth Busted: The Childers campaign states the “nasty” Republican primary has hurt Mayor Greg Davis in the special election. But, their own data refutes this contention. The Childers’ poll shows Mayor Davis’ personal image holding a nearly three-to-one positive image rating with voters, 46%-16%. The Mayor’s image rating does not indicate he’s a weakened candidate.

Moreover, it is important to note that Childers did not release the Mayor’s image rating among Republicans. Our polling shows Mayor Davis owning a very strong personal image rating with Republicans, 65% favorable – 7% unfavorable. Contrary to Childers’ claims, the Republican primary has strengthened Greg Davis among Republicans. There is little evidence to support the claim there will be mass Republican defections in a two-person race.

Myth #2: Travis Childers has cross-over partisan and ideological appeal.
Myth Busted: While the Childers’ campaign desperately attempts to blur the partisan and ideological differences between the candidates, the data clearly indicates he will have a difficult time hiding his Democratic Party affiliation coming out of the partisan primary elections.

Indeed, as the following table illustrates, Childers’ initial ballot support is only marginally higher than the support Senator Barack Obama receives in a hypothetical match-up against Republican John McCain.

Group Childers% Obama%
Republicans 5% 1%
Conservatives 14% 12%
Pro-life voters 25% 19%

Myth #3: The “non-partisan” election reduces the role of voters’ partisan preferences.
Myth Busted: The Childers’ campaign states the lack of partisan candidate labels makes this campaign competitive but our polling clearly indicates voters are strongly aware of the candidates’ partisan affiliation. Republican voters are supporting the Republican candidates by an 80%-7% margin while Democrats are voting for their candidates, 68%-14%.

Coming just three weeks after competitive partisan primaries, 1st District voters – especially the type of voter who is would be likely to vote in an April special election – will know the Republican candidates from the Democratic candidates.

Bottom Line
Special elections are always tough, and there is no reason to assume the 1st District race will be any different. With a heavy African-American population and the ability of the DCCC to bankroll a substantial campaign effort against Mayor Davis, we can expect the Democrats to put up an aggressive fight.

Moreover, the election process – a multi-candidate field coming just weeks following competitive party primaries – will make it very difficult for any candidate to cross the 50% threshold on April 22nd. It is very likely the ultimate outcome of this race will be decided on May 13th when voters will have a clear choice between Republican Greg Davis and Democrat Travis Childers.

While the Childers campaign tries to run away from the liberal Washington DC leadership, the polling indicates 1st District voters are not buying it. Over next two weeks we can expect to see Childers try even harder to separate himself from the failed record of his liberal DC allies.

The survey shows that 1st District voters are attracted to Mayor Davis’ conservative message of a strong national defense, fiscal responsibility and secure borders. As voters learn more about the partisan differences in this election, Mayor Davis will be in a very good position in this special election.

 

POLL MEMO #2

8 April 2008

To: Interested Parties

Fr: John Anzalone / Jeff Liszt

Re: Summary of Polling Results in MS CD-1

The special election for Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District is highly competitive.

Travis Childers has strong name identification following his Democratic run-off victory,

and holds a slim lead over Republican Greg Davis when matched up head-to-head.

Tested against all six candidates in the race, Childers and Davis are in a statistical dead

heat in a district where the partisanship is almost even right now.

• Travis Childers (41%) holds a slight lead when matched up head-to-head with

Greg Davis (40%). Nearly one-in-five voters are undecided and neither party

has an advantage with this group on the generic ballot measure. Undecideds are

up for grabs and truly a swing universe.

• Childers (47% favorable / 8% unfavorable) has a higher favorable rating and

lower unfavorable rating than Davis (46% fav/ 16% unfav).

• When all six candidates are tested in a special election matchup — where there

will be no party labels on the ballot — Childers (27%) and Davis (29%) are in a

statistical tie. As a result of a nasty Republican primary, Glen McCullough

(14%) hurts Davis much more than Steve Holland (7%) impacts Childers.

Childers gains nearly 7 points onto his vote when the black vote is extrapolated

to an 80% election-day projection, essentially giving him the lead. One-third of

undecided voters are black and are strong generic ballot Democratic voters.

(more…)

Dear Glenn McCullough,

April 8, 2008

Good Job, Well Done, and a Hat-Tip for a well run campaign.  We loved the Greg Davis endorsement press release, it takes an awful lot to get behind a former adversary just hours after losing a heartbreaker.

We believe that it says a lot about your character and we hope that your supporters follow suit.  The last thing we need a fractured party in Northeast Mississippi if we are going to get Senator Wicker elected this November.

-ROM

Question: Does Travis Childers Have a Chance?

April 8, 2008

Answer: No

Someone over at DailyKos and our friends at Cottonmouth are really trying to sell a bill of goods that says Travis Childers has a chance in NE MS. They forget one important fact; Haley Barbour is the Governor of Mississippi, he made the Senate appointment and I hardly doubt that our good Governor would stand by and not put the full efforts of the MS GOP towards retaining this seat.

Plus everyone already knows that Travis Childers is a shady fellow, just look at who he hangs out with, using his office to make sweet-heart land deals. This is a very well known fact in Prentiss County.

In a year that might be good for Democrats nationwide, they better look somewhere else than here in Mississippi. We think Greg Davis has a pretty good shot at taking the election on the first ballot April 22nd.

-ROM

Another Glenn McCullough Ad and some early analysis…

February 29, 2008

Better than the “Hoops” ad but I don’t understand the tactic, are you trying to build yourself up or go negative against Washington D.C.?

Here at ROM we are always 100% opposed to cheesy animation in political ad’s see our critique of Charlie Ross’ Fighter Ad from last year.

ROM Overall Grade: B

I have been looking for insight into how this race is going to shake down but nobody seems to know, looks like the numbers still favor Davis but there are a lot of heavy hitters that have yet to weigh in on the race, a quick look through all of my old notes from last year only show one note on McCullough and that he showed up to speak on behalf of Jeffrey Rupp at a number of forums during Rupp’s short run for SOS in which he garnered only 8% of the vote.  Interestingly enough Greg Davis was one of Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann’s early supporters (we wrote a post about it here) anyone who knows anything about Mississippi Politics knows there are factions and cliques in the MSGOP it is pretty obvious that these two guys come from opposite sides but if the sides they chose on the SOS primary are any indication then one could assume that Davis’ group is much stronger.

Travis Childers Mustache is plastered all over TV Screens in NE Mississippi

February 19, 2008

Travis Childers is up in MS-01 ROM overall Grade = D+ (His Mustache is KILLING ME) His mom sure has some big hair!

The ad is not very creative and pretty poorly produced very unflattering to both him and Mrs. Childers.

Greg Davis is also up in MS-01 ROM overall Grade = B+ good looking ad but you really have to jump off the screen to get an A from ROM

We still think Davis has the demographic edge in this race but are anxiously waiting media from Glenn McCullough.

If the race was a beauty contest then Macy Davis would be running away with it. Not too hard though when the Democrat is actually paying to have the above spot on the air.

We wouldn’t

***UPDATE***

Glenn McCullough has an ad up called “Hoops”

Not sure about this one at all, kind of bland but not bad in any way. ROM overall Grade = C+ 

-ROM