It’s that time again, go for it, leave your own predictions but here are the official ROM predictions
GOVERNOR: BRYANT 55%
LT. GOVERNOR: REEVES 52%
SOS: HOSEMANN 70%
TREASURER: RUNOFF SMITH & FITCH 35 and 35
AG COMMISSIONER: PHILLIPS 51%
TRANSPORTATION COMMISSIONER: HALL 60%
-ROM
***UPDATE*** This letter is absolutely fake
This was just emailed in and it looks bogus. I doubt the Log Cabin Republicans are getting involved in the Mississippi Republican Primaries. Smells like someone is up to some dirty tricks. The letter is not mentioned on their website: LOG CABIN REPUBLICANS
And the signature and the name of the executive director do not match.
We don’t appreciate this kind of dirty, nasty, underhanded politics so we are here to call this out, that’s why blogging can be a force for good. If this letter is in fact fake and if anyone else received this please let us know.
-ROM
Lucien comes out with a slightly better than last time but probably not that effective because we did not hear from the candidate second effort.
This untitled spot uses a mix of still photos and b-roll using a narrator to make the case that Lucien is the best candidate for Treasurer.
We are not sure that we don’t agree that Lucien may in fact be the best choice and he did a dang good job raising money we just fear that his production work has been so poor that it may hurt his chances to actually win this race.
Could we be seeing a tragic story of a campaign that does not end up where it should simply because of ad quality?
We will know in 8 days.
ROM OVERALL GRADE: C
-ROM
As expected after his 2 opponents dropped their commercials in the last couple of days, Lee Yancey is out with his own ad entitled “Pennies” we would rank the spot somewhere between Lucien and Lynn for production quality and message.
From what we hear about this race on the ground it seems that Lucien still has the upper hand because he will have weight of message, Lynn has the best ads and Lee has the ground troops. Now that the ad war has started we will officially rate this race as the “one to watch” on August 2nd because it is absolutely unclear who will prevail, we smell a runoff brewing and whatever 2 emerge will have a lot of work to do to get their voters back to the polls, and that’s where Lee may have the advantage having run a very grassroots focused campaign, if he can make the runoff.
How will it end up on August 2nd is anyone’s guess right now, there is no consensus among any of our contacts as to who may be leading or even who has the momentum, Lucien raised the most money and that is almost always a rock solid indicator but he has been out done in the ad department by both opponents although not by any huge margin that would swing the voters dramatically.
We are throwing our hands up in confusion and will be sitting back, popping some popcorn, and watching this race with extreme interest.
But for now we are going to sit back and enjoy the great efforts that all of these candidates have put forth in pursuit of this office so far the race has been classy, with the only real mistake being Lee Yancey’s horrible horrible signs.
So folks here it is, “Pennies” starring Mr. Lee Yancey
ROM Overall Grade: B
-ROM
With 2 really high quality ads. Produced by: Dresner Wickers Associates
“JT”
ROM Overall Grade: A+
“On Day One”
ROM Overall Grade: B
We really like these ads, certainly stronger in the production department than Lucien Smith. “JT” is the strongest of the 2 ads by far with extra points for creativity and we like the gag about not using a high priced media consultant when they are using one of the highest priced firms in the business, although i would say they got their moneys worth here, the ads are sharp, crisp, well written, lighted and executed.
With the exception of Max Phillips’ spots these would be the biggest surprise hits so far in the 2011 races.
Interested to see what Lee Yancey comes up with, right now Lynn is certainly leading in the air war if she can afford to keep them on the air.
-ROM
April 30 campaign finance reports were due today, generally these are the best indicator of who will win primaries for the statewide races as campaigns begin spending money very shortly, the April 30 reports are generally close to the high water mark for a primary campaign, many campaigns will raise more cash in the next 2 months but generally it gets harder as most have picked the low hanging fruit by now.
Cash on Hand is really all that matters so it is all we are reporting here:
GOV:
Dave Dennis: COH = $708,867.54
Phil Bryant: COH = $2,015,988.00
Bill Luckett: COH= $518,526.77
Johnny DuPree: COH= $82,752.66
Lt. GOV:
Tate Reeves: COH = $2,100,473.21
Billy Hewes: COH = $1,169,744.00
Attorney General:
Jim Hood: COH = $439,537.77
Steve Simpson: = $200,058.54
Secretary of State:
Delbert Hosemann: COH = $814,994.05
Ricky Dombrowski: = $10,847.61
State Treasurer:
Lucien Smith: COH = $427,476.00
Lynn Fitch: COH = $115,129.10
Lee Yancey: COH = $122,655.28
State Auditor:
Stacey Pickering: COH = $115,328.74
Agriculture Commissioner:
Max Phillips: COH = $136,594.08
Dannie Reed: COH = $8857.00
Cindy Hyde-Smith: COH = $37,302.50
Insurance Commissioner:
Mike Chaney: COH = $204,292.48
Updates as they become available.
-ROM
This could be the hottest race on the ballot in 2011. All 3 candidates have now announced, have websites up have some cash in the bank and have begun the process of campaigning. With scarce resources and a big state to cover this will likely be our primary race to watch in 2011. Stay tuned and candidates please keep us up to date.
-ROM
Who went big and who may be stumbling out of the gate. Those are just a few of the questions that are so frequently answered by our State’s yearly campaign finance reports. Political junkies and reporters have been camped out on Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann’s website all day to see who did well and who fell flat in the very first real indicator of campaign and organizational strength as we move into the 2011 election season.
2 things to check out:
1. COH = Cash On Hand available
2. Total cash burned and total burn rate (ROM formula for Burn Rate is = TOTAL SPENT 2010/TOTAL RAISED 2010) The higher the number the worse the $ burn. This can be confusing for candidates whom have just entered a race (see the State Treasurer race where 2 candidates reported $0 expenditures)
GOV:
Dave Dennis: COH = $527,199.73 BURN RATE = .522
Phil Bryant: COH = $2,023,993 BURN RATE = .321
Bill Luckett: COH= $350,622.88 BURN RATE = .279
Lt. GOV:
Tate Reeves: COH = $1,644,598.59 BURN RATE = .167
Billy Hewes: COH = $1,016,257.67 BURN RATE = .165
Attorney General:
Jim Hood: COH = $402,378.73 BURN RATE = .266
Steve Simpson: DID NOT FILE
Secretary of State:
Delbert Hosemann: COH = $532,261.11 BURN RATE = .209
State Treasurer:
Lucien Smith: COH = $256,549.00 BURN RATE = 0
Lynn Fitch: COH = $163,119.04 BURN RATE = 0
Lee Yancey: COH = $71,410.99 BURN RATE = .233
State Auditor:
Stacey Pickering: COH = $140,097.62 BURN RATE = .546
Agriculture Commissioner:
Max Phillips: COH = $106,389.41 BURN RATE = .123
Dannie Reed: COH = $4082.72 BURN RATE = 1.07
Cindy Hyde-Smith: COH = $6664.65 BURN RATE = .675
Insurance Commissioner:
Mike Chaney: COH = $195,264.00 BURN RATE = .230
Updates as they become available.
-ROM
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