Archive for the ‘Les Riley’ category

ROM nails the statewide races with 4% Margin of Error

November 7, 2007

We are very proud of how we did in our “Pick em” challenge we NAILED the race for Governor within .3%

We went 7 for 8 on the winners picking Anderson to beat Chaney which obviously never happened

Listed are our predictions followed by actual outcome.  We did purty good I would say.

ROM PREDICTION:

Governor

Haley Barbour: 58.4%

John Arthur Eaves Jr: 41.6%

Actual:

Haley Barbour: 58.06%

John Arthur Eaves Jr: 41.9%

ROM CALL: CORRECT!!! WE NAILED THE GOVERNORS RACE

Missed it by just under 0.3%

 

Lt. Governor

Phil Bryant: 56.1%

Jamie Franks: 43.9%

Actual:

Phil Bryant: 58.7%

Jamie Franks: 41.3%

ROM Call: Correct!

Percentage: Missed on the tight side by 2.6%

Secretary of State

Delbert Hosemann: 55.9%

Rob Smith: 44.1%

Actual:

Delbert Hosemann: 58.6

Rob Smith: 41.4

ROM Call: Correct!

Percentage: Missed on the tight side by 2.7%

Attorney General

Jim Hood: 55.3%

Al Hopkins: 44.7%

Actual:

Jim Hood: 59.6%

Al Hopkins: 40.4%

ROM Call: Correct!

Percentage: Missed on the tight side by 4.3%

State Treasurer

Tate Reeves: 60.1%

Shawn O’Hara: 39.9%

Actual:

Tate Reeves: 60.7%

Shawn O’Hara: 39.3

ROM Call: Correct!

Percentage: NAILED THIS ONE TOO Missed on the tight side by 0.6%

State Auditor:

Stacey Pickering: 51.8%

Mike Sumrall: 48.2%

Actual:

Stacey Pickering: 55.2%

Mike Sumrall: 44.8%

ROM Call: Correct!

Percentage: Misssed on the tight side by 3.4%

Insurance Commissioner:

Gary Anderson: 51.0%

Mike Chaney: 49.0%

Actual:

Mike Chaney: 56.8%

Gary Anderson: 43.2%

ROM CALL: Incorrect…

Percentage: Underestimated Mike Chaney by 7.8%

Commissioner of Agriculture:

Lester Spell: 40.4%

Rickey Cole: 39.5%

Les Riley: 20.1%

Actual:

Lester Spell: 50.8%

Rickey Cole: 42.1%

Les Riley: 7.04%

ROM CALL: Correct

Percentage: Quite a bit off, I overestimated the beef plant effect on Spell and though it would push a larger chunk of his votes to Riley I underestimated Spell by 10.4%, was a lot closer on Cole who I only missed by 2.6%

ROM Goes 7 for 8 on 2007 Statewide Races with ON RECORD picks, our margins were closer to correct than any other on-record picks that we can find on the net. We had an average margin of Error on ALL PICKS of 4.08% OVERALL

As the years go on here at ROM we will continue this little exercise and keep a running tally

As it stands ROM’s pick em 2007 average is 88% correct on winners/losers with a 4.08% overall margin of error on the spread.

Not too shabby if we do say so ourself as we did pick 2 races dead on missing the exact percentage by less than 1%

How did ya’ll do?

-ROM 

Mississippi Statewide Results with 99% Reporting

November 7, 2007

Mississippi

November 07, 2007 – 12:50PM ET

Governor – General

1898 of 1899 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Barbour, Haley (i) GOP 415,103 58%

Eaves, John Dem 299,763 42%

Lieutenant Governor – General

1898 of 1899 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Bryant, Phil GOP 416,057 59%

Franks, Jamie Dem 292,333 41%

Secretary of State – General

1898 of 1899 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Hosemann, Delbert GOP 410,603 59%

Smith, Robert Dem 291,248 41%

Attorney General – General

1897 of 1899 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Hood, Jim (i) Dem 421,137 60%

Hopkins, Al GOP 285,357 40%

Auditor – General

1897 of 1899 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Pickering, Stacey GOP 385,243 55%

Sumrall, Mike Dem 312,048 45%

Treasurer – General

1897 of 1899 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Reeves, Tate (i) GOP 420,546 61%

O’Hara, Shawn Dem 272,327 39%

Agriculture Commissioner – General

1897 of 1899 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Spell, Lester (i) GOP 356,201 51%

Cole, Rickey Dem 295,021 42%

Riley, Paul CST 49,353 7%

Insurance Commissioner – General

1897 of 1899 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Chaney, Mike GOP 399,966 57%

Anderson, Gary Dem 304,677 43%

Public Service Comm – Central District – General

584 of 584 Precincts Reporting – 100%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Posey, Lynn Dem 117,273 50%

Barbour, Charles GOP 108,459 47%

Dilworth, Lee RP 6,706 3%

Public Service Comm – Southern District – General

683 of 685 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Bentz, Leonard (i) GOP 133,652 56%

Collier, Mike Dem 104,809 44%

Public Service Comm – Northern District – General

630 of 630 Precincts Reporting – 100%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Presley, Brandon Dem 128,670 58%

Murphree, Mabel GOP 94,791 42%

Transportation Comm – Central District – General

584 of 584 Precincts Reporting – 100%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Hall, Dick (i) GOP 121,452 52%

Warnock, Rudolph Dem 110,717 48%

Transportation Comm – Southern District – General

683 of 685 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Brown, Wayne (i) Dem 127,111 52%

Benefield, Larry GOP 115,151 48%

 

WOW! I will transpose these against my picks from last week and issue my own scorecard soon.

We didn’t do half bad!

-ROM 

Columbus Dispatch Releases Statewide Endorsements

November 5, 2007

Columbus Commercial Dispatch Releases Statewide Endorsements 

Our choices (11/5)

Endorsements

Governor: Haley Barbour, Republican

Lt. Governor: Jamie Franks, Democrat

Sec. of State: Delbert Hosemann, Republican

Atty. Gen.: Jim Hood, Democrat

State auditor: Mike Sumrall, Democrat

State treasurer: Tate Reeves, Republican

Ag Comm.: Rickey Cole, Democrat

Ins. Comm.: Mike Chaney, Republican

With the statewide elections only a day away, it’s going to be up to the voters to sift through the candidates’ pitches and make their decisions, hopefully based on informed opinions.

The Commercial Dispatch has presented our readers with detailed information about the candidates for local, district and state offices. We done profiles on each local and area race and produced a voters’ guide on the local candidates before the first primary election.

We’ve had editorial board meetings with most of the state candidates and presented reports on those meetings for our readers. And we’ve seen them in public appearances.

Now, as yet another service to our readers, we’d like to present a slate of who we think are the best candidates for the top statewide offices:

Governor: Incumbent Republican Haley Barbour is the best choice, as we stated in an editorial in Sunday’s Dispatch. Barbour has proven his leadership and deserves another four years at the helm of our state.

Lieutenant governor: Democrat Jamie Franks is our choice for the state’s second highest elected office, for reasons we outlined in our Sunday editorial. We like Franks for his independent streak and bipartisan outlook. He will provide a check and balance for Barbour, who is the most powerful governor we can remember in Mississippi.

Secretary of state: Republican Delbert Hosemann deserves to be Mississippi’s next secretary of state. Hosemann, who undoubtedly has the best campaign ads this season, is not a career politician. He simply wants to serve Mississippians and clean up our elections.

Attorney general: Incumbent Democrat Jim Hood has done a good job and should have a second term in office.

State auditor: Although both candidates seem well qualified, Democrat Mike Sumrall, who has served 24 years in the state auditor’s office, is the better pick, based on his experience, in this closely fought race.

State treasurer: Republican Tate Reeves has been a good state treasurer and has only token competition from perennial candidate Shawn O’Hara. Reeves should be elected to a second term.

Commissioner of Agriculture and Commerce: We’d like to see Democrat Rickey Cole have a chance at this job. The nefarious beef plant has left a bad taste in Mississippian’s mouths when it come to the incumbent in the position and it’s time for a change in this office.

Commissioner of insurance: In the wake of the insurance mess created by Hurricane Katrina, Mississippi’s longest serving state office holder, George Dale was ousted from this office by Gary Anderson in the primary. We like both candidates in this race, but we think Republican Mike Chaney is the better choice for the prudent approach he promises to take in restabilizing the insurance industry in the state.

These are our picks for the top eight statewide offices. It’s a bi-partisan ticket, with four Democrats and four Republicans. We aren’t interested in supporting any particular party; we’re just looking for the best candidates to serve Mississippians for the next four years.

These are our suggestions, and now it’s up to you, the voters, to go to the polls and vote your convictions. The polls will be open Tuesday from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Vote responsibly.

2007 Mississippi Statewide Election Predictions

October 30, 2007

Right of Mississippi 2007 Predictions:

This is on record 7 days out, we have carefully studied all of these campaigns for nearly a year now and this is our best guess on the final outcome.

Governor: VERY SAFE GOP

Haley Barbour: 58.4%

John Arthur Eaves Jr: 41.6%

Lt. Gov: SAFE GOP

Phil Bryant: 56.1%

Jamie Franks: 43.9%

SOS: SAFE GOP

Delbert Hosemann: 55.9%

Rob Smith: 44.1%

Attorney General: SAFE DEM

Jim Hood: 55.3%

Al Hopkins: 44.7%

State Treasurer: VERY SAFE GOP

Tate Reeves: 60.1%

Shawn O’Hara: 39.9%

State Auditor: TOO CLOSE TO CALL/LEAN GOP

Stacey Pickering: 51.8%

Mike Sumrall: 48.2%

Insurance Commissioner: TOO CLOSE TO CALL/SLIGHT LEAN DEM

Gary Anderson: 51.0%

Mike Chaney: 49.0%

Commissioner of Agriculture: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Lester Spell: 40.4%

Rickey Cole: 39.5%

Les Riley: 20.1%

The 3 of us here at ROM personally called through our address books and got responses from about 50 voters, hardly a random sample but it helped us please feel free to discuss and disagree, things could change in the next week and we will show updates if we make them.  Make your own scorecard and we can compare in a week.

 -ROM

Swing State Project:: Expectations Game, Mississippi 2007

October 23, 2007

For those of you who dont know, the swing-state project is a far left national political blog: they have analysis up about Mississippi 2007 and they don’t sound very hopeful about the outcome.

I have to agree that the GOP ticket keeps looking better and better as we get closer to November 6th and the Democrat ticket keeps stumbling along seemingly unable to get their legs under them as a group.

Worth a read –ROM

Swing State Project:: Expectations Game, Mississippi 2007

 
(From the diaries. Share your thoughts on Mississippi’s 2007 elections here. – promoted by James L.)Louisiana has had their jungle primary and Democrats held on to the both chambers of the state legislature, the Lieutenant Governorship, and are heading into run offs for Agriculture Commissioner and Attorney General. Before these runoffs are held, Kentucky and Mississippi will have similar statewide elections on November 6. Additionally, New Jersey and Virginia will be electing large portions of their state legislatures. Going into these elections, I’d like us to have an opportunity to focus on these somewhat overlooked 2007 elections. Before going forward, I will admit that I am not an expert on any of these states and these threads are mostly here for feedback from the forum users. Today, I’ll focus on Mississippi.Mississippi will be voting for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General, State Auditor, State Treasurer, Agriculture and Commerce Commissioner, and Insurance Commissioner. Additionally the state legislature is up. Here’s a brief on each office.

Governor
Haley Barbour, former tobacco lobbyist, is seeking re-election as the Republican nominee. Barbour beat out incumbent Democrat, Ronnie Musgrove in 2003. Since then he has been received positively by the state, mostly due to what was seen as strong reaction to Hurricane Katrina (no doubt reinforced by Louisiana’s poor reaction). The Democrats have nominated John Arthur Eaves Jr. who, from what I have heard, has run hard on religion and performed well in debates while Barbour has appeared listless. Expect Barbour to win, but his margin of victory to be closer than expected.

Lieutenant Governor
Due to term limits, Republican Amy Tuck will not be seeking re-election. The Republicans have nominated 3 term State Auditor Phil Bryant. The Democrat is State Rep. Jaime Franks. Both candidates look to be highly engaged in this race. I have no idea who is favored, but I’d guess Bryant because he has been elected statewide before.

Secretary of State
Incumbent Democrat Eric Clark is retiring. Democrats have nominated Former State Senator Rob Smith. The Republicans have put forward Redstate favorite Delbert Hosemann who will keep those “dirty illegals” from voting. Delbert’s campaign looks much more engaged compared to Smith whos campaign looks nonexistent. Expect the Republicans to gain this one.

Attorney General
Incumbent Democrat Jim Hood is seeking re-election. The Republican candidate is Attorney Al Hopkins. Both sides appear engaged and Hopkins looks like he’s bringing abortion into the election. Both sides also look like they are getting REAL dirty as well. This one may be close, but I’d guess a Hood re-election is in store.

State Auditor
Phi Bryant is the Republican nominee for Lieutenant Governor, so it is an open seat race. Cousin to Congressman Chip, State Sen. Stacey Pickering is the Republican nominee. The Democrats have nominated communty activist Todd Brand. This one got away from us and will stay with the Republicans.

Treasurer
Republican Tate Reeves is seeking re-election and the Democrats have frequent candidate Shawn O’Hara. This one is staying theirs.

Agriculture and Commerce
Republican Lester Spell is seeking re-election. Former Democratic State Chair Rickey Cole is our guy. This is the only race where the Democrat seems more engaged than the Republican. If we upset any race this is it, but the Republican is still favored. A candidate from the Constitution Party may make the difference for us.

Insurance Commissioner
DFA endorsed and ex-state fiscal officer Gary Anderson defeated incumbent Democrat George Dale in the primary, so this can be considered an open seat race. The Republicans have nominated Mike Chaney. Anderson looks a bit more engaged, but, and I REALLY hate to say this, expect race may be a factor and we may lose it on that alone, issues be damned! I’d say this leans Republican, but we still have chance.

State Senate
A pair of Democrats defected earlier this year and gave control of the legislature to the Republicans. The current Composition is 27 Republicans-25 Democrats. I expect the Republicans may have some coattails from many of their top of the ballot races and gain a tad to expand their majorities.

State House
The DLCC website states the Mississippi State House has a 74-48 Democratic majority. Expect our majroity to shrink due to coattails, but Democrats to stay in command.

Summary
Republicans will keep the statewide seats they already have, however the race for Governor and Lieutenant Governor may be closer than we could have previously hoped for. The Agriculture Commissioner may flip Democratic, however it is unlikely Democrats can also expect to lose the Secretary of State. Our bright side appears that, while it will be close, we should hold onto the Attorney General, barely, and the State House. While Insurance Commissioner will probably flip Republican, we do have fighting chance of holding it.

Please, comment, and tell me your thoughts on Mississippi. I’ll have more of these up before Nov 6 on New Jersey, Virginia, and Kentucky.

Andy Taggart’s scorecard 3 weeks out..

October 17, 2007

Andy Taggart has posted his October 16th campaign scorecard: Red/Blue Blog

Today we are three weeks out from Election Day. I have updated my scorecard as follows:

Sure things for Republicans — Governor, Treasurer, Secretary of State and Auditor
Clear favorite for Republicans — Lieutenant Governor and Insurance Commissioner
Leaning Republican — Ag Commissioner
Toss up — Attorney General

It takes guts to put your name on predictions and I like that about Andy Taggart. Some other Bloggers need to step up to the plate (including myself) and put our credibility on the line.

Ours (yes I have collaborators now) will be out “sometime” soon.

-ROM

Statewide Campaign Finance Numbers

October 11, 2007

statewidecampaignfinance10102.pdf 

Topline finance clips from the statewide candidates all in one nice PDF for you fine people.

ROM