Archive for the ‘Lester Spell’ category

The race for Mississippi Commissioner of Agriculture and Commerce

May 10, 2011

***Update*** if you are a conservative you should be voting for Max Phillips today.

Here at ROM we love the smaller statewide races and Commissioner of Ag is no different.  In 2011 we have a 3 way primary for the Republican nomination that will decide who replaces our good friend Dr. Lester Spell who is retiring.

The candidates are:

Max Phillips: (WEBSITE) who should be considered the clear front runner having run close campaigns for this office twice before.  Most know Max as a soft-spoken and humble guy who has dedicated his life to improving Agriculture in Mississippi and is a long time Republican.  This race is likely his to lose because of his built in Name ID advantage and will depend almost 100% on how much money Max is able to raise to hold off a late charge from one of the other 2 challengers.

Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith: (WEBSITE)  is the new favorite of the “inside Jackson crowd” and has the slickest website (possibly not what you want to be if you are running for Ag Commissioner) but it could boost her fund-raising.  We had the opportunity to meet Mrs. Hyde-Smith not long ago when she was a Democrat State Senator and we were happy to hear the news when she recently changed parties.  Mrs. Hyde-Smith may in the end find that it would have been in her best interest to stay a Democrat instead of vying for the Republican nomination as GOP primary voters do not often look kindly upon those who were members of Barack Obama’s party less than a year ago.

Rep. Dannie Reed: (WEBSITE)  a State Rep from northeast MS, who was in this race very early (even willing to challenge Dr. Lester Spell) who could parlay a geographic base into run up the middle and force a runoff, still relatively unknown it will be interesting to see if he can put some money into the bank and truly make this a 3 way race.

ROM is reserving judgment on this race until we see more finance reports but word on the ground from our grassroots people is that most folks are going with Max Phillips, and some of the big hitters are starting to follow.  Here at ROM we are currently leaning towards Phillips but hey we are only 88.6 percent in picking MS races.

Anyway, this is one to watch as we get deeper into primary season.

-ROM

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Democrats run in only 5 of 8 statewide races in Mississippi

March 2, 2011

In Case You Missed It.  August will be exciting, November will be a yawner…

Oh and who the hell is Rickey Dombrowski?  He is the only surprise of the day so we will try to find out.

More good coverage: Y’all Politics and Majority in Mississippi

-ROM

http://www.sunherald.com/2011/03/01/v-print/2906140/dems-run-in-only-5-of-8-statewide.html

Dems run in only 5 of 8 statewide races in Miss.

By EMILY WAGSTER PETTUS

Republicans are running for all eight statewide offices in Mississippi this year, but Democrats are running for only five.Both major parties are fielding candidates for governor, attorney general, treasurer, agriculture commissioner and insurance commissioner.

Democrats don’t have candidates for lieutenant governor, secretary of state or auditor.

Tuesday was the qualifying deadline for statewide and regional offices, and it brought few surprises. Although former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove had been rumored as a potential candidate for lieutenant governor, he did not enter the race. Musgrove, a Democrat, was lieutenant governor from 1996 to 2000 and governor from 2000 to 2004.

This year’s party primaries are Aug. 2, and the general election is Nov. 8.

Democrats dominated Mississippi politics for generations, but Republicans began gaining momentum in 1991 with the election of businessman Kirk Fordice as governor. The GOP now holds seven of the eight statewide offices, with Attorney General Jim Hood as the lone Democrat.

Hood is seeking a third term, and his only opponent is Republican Steve Simpson, who recently resigned as state public safety commissioner.

Mississippi Democratic Party chairman Jamie Franks said Tuesday he’s disappointed the party doesn’t have a full slate of candidates.

“This is going to be a year of rebuilding,” Franks said in an interview.

Republican chairman Arnie Hederman in a statement that the GOP expects a “spirited” primary.

“We are confident that come August we will have a ticket of tested and proven conservatives to carry our message forward against the big-spending Democrats in the fall,” Hederman said.

Republican Gov. Haley Barbour can’t seek a third term.

The four Democrats who qualified to run for governor are William Bond Compton of Meridian, who ran a low-budget campaign for governor in 2007; Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree; attorney and businessman Bill Luckett of Clarksdale; and Guy Dale Shaw of Coffeeville, a former Yalobusha County tax assessor.

The Republican candidates for governor are former state employee James Broadwater of Byram; Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant of Flowood; businessman Dave Dennis of Pass Christian; Pearl River County Supervisor Hudson Holliday of Poplarville; and businessman Ron Williams of Moss Point.

William D. Oatis is running as an independent for governor. His city was not immediately available. Shawn O’Hara of Hattiesburg is running as a Reform Party candidate for governor.

O’Hara also signed up to run this year under two different party labels for state treasurer – as a Democrat and as a Reform Party candidate.

O’Hara has been a perennial fixture in Mississippi politics the past two decades and has run unsuccessfully for a host of offices, from governor to congressman to mayor. In 2007, O’Hara signed up to run for all eight statewide offices, two regional offices, two legislative seats and eight Forrest County offices. The Democratic Party told him to pick one race to run in. O’Hara appealed to circuit court, and a judge eventually told him to pick one. O’Hara ran for treasurer and lost.

This year, O’Hara faces Ocean Springs Mayor Connie Moran in the Democratic primary for treasurer. The open state treasurer’s race also attracted three Republicans – Lynn Fitch of Madison, director of the Mississippi Public Employees Retirement System; Lucien Smith of Jackson, an attorney and former budget adviser to Barbour; and Lee Yancey of Brandon, a state treasurer and money manager for a Jackson-area financial firm.

Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann of Jackson attracted a last-minute Republican primary opponent.

Gulfport City Council president Ricky Dombrowski said Tuesday during a news conference on the coast that he’s challenging Hosemann because he’s upset about Hosemann’s handling of tidelands leases in the city’s small craft harbor. The secretary of state’s office oversees leases of public lands, including tidelands. Dombrowski said he believes the city should not have to share revenue with the state.

Mississippi Campaign Finance Report Day February, 2011

February 1, 2011

Who went big and who may be stumbling out of the gate.  Those are just a few of the questions that are so frequently answered by our State’s yearly campaign finance reports.  Political junkies and reporters have been camped out on Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann’s website all day to see who did well and who fell flat in the very first real indicator of campaign and organizational strength as we move into the 2011 election season.

2 things to check out:

1. COH = Cash On Hand available

2.  Total cash burned and total burn rate (ROM formula for Burn Rate is = TOTAL SPENT 2010/TOTAL RAISED 2010) The higher the number the worse the $ burn.  This can be confusing for candidates whom have just entered a race (see the State Treasurer race where 2 candidates reported $0 expenditures)

GOV:

Dave Dennis: COH = $527,199.73 BURN RATE = .522

Phil Bryant: COH = $2,023,993 BURN RATE = .321

Bill Luckett: COH= $350,622.88 BURN RATE = .279

Lt. GOV:

Tate Reeves: COH = $1,644,598.59 BURN RATE = .167

Billy Hewes: COH = $1,016,257.67 BURN RATE = .165

Attorney General:

Jim Hood: COH = $402,378.73 BURN RATE = .266

Steve Simpson: DID NOT FILE

Secretary of State:

Delbert Hosemann: COH = $532,261.11 BURN RATE = .209

State Treasurer:

Lucien Smith: COH = $256,549.00 BURN RATE = 0

Lynn Fitch: COH = $163,119.04 BURN RATE = 0

Lee Yancey: COH = $71,410.99 BURN RATE = .233

State Auditor:

Stacey Pickering: COH = $140,097.62 BURN RATE = .546

Agriculture Commissioner:

Max Phillips: COH = $106,389.41 BURN RATE = .123

Dannie Reed: COH = $4082.72 BURN RATE = 1.07

Cindy Hyde-Smith: COH = $6664.65 BURN RATE = .675

Insurance Commissioner:

Mike Chaney: COH = $195,264.00 BURN RATE = .230

Updates as they become available.

-ROM

ROM nails the statewide races with 4% Margin of Error

November 7, 2007

We are very proud of how we did in our “Pick em” challenge we NAILED the race for Governor within .3%

We went 7 for 8 on the winners picking Anderson to beat Chaney which obviously never happened

Listed are our predictions followed by actual outcome.  We did purty good I would say.

ROM PREDICTION:

Governor

Haley Barbour: 58.4%

John Arthur Eaves Jr: 41.6%

Actual:

Haley Barbour: 58.06%

John Arthur Eaves Jr: 41.9%

ROM CALL: CORRECT!!! WE NAILED THE GOVERNORS RACE

Missed it by just under 0.3%

 

Lt. Governor

Phil Bryant: 56.1%

Jamie Franks: 43.9%

Actual:

Phil Bryant: 58.7%

Jamie Franks: 41.3%

ROM Call: Correct!

Percentage: Missed on the tight side by 2.6%

Secretary of State

Delbert Hosemann: 55.9%

Rob Smith: 44.1%

Actual:

Delbert Hosemann: 58.6

Rob Smith: 41.4

ROM Call: Correct!

Percentage: Missed on the tight side by 2.7%

Attorney General

Jim Hood: 55.3%

Al Hopkins: 44.7%

Actual:

Jim Hood: 59.6%

Al Hopkins: 40.4%

ROM Call: Correct!

Percentage: Missed on the tight side by 4.3%

State Treasurer

Tate Reeves: 60.1%

Shawn O’Hara: 39.9%

Actual:

Tate Reeves: 60.7%

Shawn O’Hara: 39.3

ROM Call: Correct!

Percentage: NAILED THIS ONE TOO Missed on the tight side by 0.6%

State Auditor:

Stacey Pickering: 51.8%

Mike Sumrall: 48.2%

Actual:

Stacey Pickering: 55.2%

Mike Sumrall: 44.8%

ROM Call: Correct!

Percentage: Misssed on the tight side by 3.4%

Insurance Commissioner:

Gary Anderson: 51.0%

Mike Chaney: 49.0%

Actual:

Mike Chaney: 56.8%

Gary Anderson: 43.2%

ROM CALL: Incorrect…

Percentage: Underestimated Mike Chaney by 7.8%

Commissioner of Agriculture:

Lester Spell: 40.4%

Rickey Cole: 39.5%

Les Riley: 20.1%

Actual:

Lester Spell: 50.8%

Rickey Cole: 42.1%

Les Riley: 7.04%

ROM CALL: Correct

Percentage: Quite a bit off, I overestimated the beef plant effect on Spell and though it would push a larger chunk of his votes to Riley I underestimated Spell by 10.4%, was a lot closer on Cole who I only missed by 2.6%

ROM Goes 7 for 8 on 2007 Statewide Races with ON RECORD picks, our margins were closer to correct than any other on-record picks that we can find on the net. We had an average margin of Error on ALL PICKS of 4.08% OVERALL

As the years go on here at ROM we will continue this little exercise and keep a running tally

As it stands ROM’s pick em 2007 average is 88% correct on winners/losers with a 4.08% overall margin of error on the spread.

Not too shabby if we do say so ourself as we did pick 2 races dead on missing the exact percentage by less than 1%

How did ya’ll do?

-ROM 

Mississippi Statewide Results with 99% Reporting

November 7, 2007

Mississippi

November 07, 2007 – 12:50PM ET

Governor – General

1898 of 1899 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Barbour, Haley (i) GOP 415,103 58%

Eaves, John Dem 299,763 42%

Lieutenant Governor – General

1898 of 1899 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Bryant, Phil GOP 416,057 59%

Franks, Jamie Dem 292,333 41%

Secretary of State – General

1898 of 1899 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Hosemann, Delbert GOP 410,603 59%

Smith, Robert Dem 291,248 41%

Attorney General – General

1897 of 1899 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Hood, Jim (i) Dem 421,137 60%

Hopkins, Al GOP 285,357 40%

Auditor – General

1897 of 1899 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Pickering, Stacey GOP 385,243 55%

Sumrall, Mike Dem 312,048 45%

Treasurer – General

1897 of 1899 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Reeves, Tate (i) GOP 420,546 61%

O’Hara, Shawn Dem 272,327 39%

Agriculture Commissioner – General

1897 of 1899 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Spell, Lester (i) GOP 356,201 51%

Cole, Rickey Dem 295,021 42%

Riley, Paul CST 49,353 7%

Insurance Commissioner – General

1897 of 1899 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Chaney, Mike GOP 399,966 57%

Anderson, Gary Dem 304,677 43%

Public Service Comm – Central District – General

584 of 584 Precincts Reporting – 100%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Posey, Lynn Dem 117,273 50%

Barbour, Charles GOP 108,459 47%

Dilworth, Lee RP 6,706 3%

Public Service Comm – Southern District – General

683 of 685 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Bentz, Leonard (i) GOP 133,652 56%

Collier, Mike Dem 104,809 44%

Public Service Comm – Northern District – General

630 of 630 Precincts Reporting – 100%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Presley, Brandon Dem 128,670 58%

Murphree, Mabel GOP 94,791 42%

Transportation Comm – Central District – General

584 of 584 Precincts Reporting – 100%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Hall, Dick (i) GOP 121,452 52%

Warnock, Rudolph Dem 110,717 48%

Transportation Comm – Southern District – General

683 of 685 Precincts Reporting – 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %

Brown, Wayne (i) Dem 127,111 52%

Benefield, Larry GOP 115,151 48%

 

WOW! I will transpose these against my picks from last week and issue my own scorecard soon.

We didn’t do half bad!

-ROM 

David Hampton Predictions 2007

November 6, 2007

David Hampton Predictions

Hattip MS Smitty

I’ve tried not to make political predictions, since I predicted Jimmy Carter would beat Ronald Reagan in Mississippi. So many people cut that column out and sent it to me with the HA HA HA note, I think circulation went up. I kept them as a reminder not to do predictions in print. But I can’t help myself. Here goes:
Governor, Haley Barbour; Lt. Gov., Phil Bryant; Attorney General, Jim Hood; Sec. of State, Delbert Hosemann; Auditor, Stacey Pickering; Insurance Commissioner, Mike Chaney; Ag Commissioner, Lester Spell; Treasurer, Tate Reeves.
This is not our endorsement list, but who I think will win. Politics is not fair and the best person does not always win. But those not on the list can console themselves that I have a lousy track record for picking winners.

Columbus Dispatch Releases Statewide Endorsements

November 5, 2007

Columbus Commercial Dispatch Releases Statewide Endorsements 

Our choices (11/5)

Endorsements

Governor: Haley Barbour, Republican

Lt. Governor: Jamie Franks, Democrat

Sec. of State: Delbert Hosemann, Republican

Atty. Gen.: Jim Hood, Democrat

State auditor: Mike Sumrall, Democrat

State treasurer: Tate Reeves, Republican

Ag Comm.: Rickey Cole, Democrat

Ins. Comm.: Mike Chaney, Republican

With the statewide elections only a day away, it’s going to be up to the voters to sift through the candidates’ pitches and make their decisions, hopefully based on informed opinions.

The Commercial Dispatch has presented our readers with detailed information about the candidates for local, district and state offices. We done profiles on each local and area race and produced a voters’ guide on the local candidates before the first primary election.

We’ve had editorial board meetings with most of the state candidates and presented reports on those meetings for our readers. And we’ve seen them in public appearances.

Now, as yet another service to our readers, we’d like to present a slate of who we think are the best candidates for the top statewide offices:

Governor: Incumbent Republican Haley Barbour is the best choice, as we stated in an editorial in Sunday’s Dispatch. Barbour has proven his leadership and deserves another four years at the helm of our state.

Lieutenant governor: Democrat Jamie Franks is our choice for the state’s second highest elected office, for reasons we outlined in our Sunday editorial. We like Franks for his independent streak and bipartisan outlook. He will provide a check and balance for Barbour, who is the most powerful governor we can remember in Mississippi.

Secretary of state: Republican Delbert Hosemann deserves to be Mississippi’s next secretary of state. Hosemann, who undoubtedly has the best campaign ads this season, is not a career politician. He simply wants to serve Mississippians and clean up our elections.

Attorney general: Incumbent Democrat Jim Hood has done a good job and should have a second term in office.

State auditor: Although both candidates seem well qualified, Democrat Mike Sumrall, who has served 24 years in the state auditor’s office, is the better pick, based on his experience, in this closely fought race.

State treasurer: Republican Tate Reeves has been a good state treasurer and has only token competition from perennial candidate Shawn O’Hara. Reeves should be elected to a second term.

Commissioner of Agriculture and Commerce: We’d like to see Democrat Rickey Cole have a chance at this job. The nefarious beef plant has left a bad taste in Mississippian’s mouths when it come to the incumbent in the position and it’s time for a change in this office.

Commissioner of insurance: In the wake of the insurance mess created by Hurricane Katrina, Mississippi’s longest serving state office holder, George Dale was ousted from this office by Gary Anderson in the primary. We like both candidates in this race, but we think Republican Mike Chaney is the better choice for the prudent approach he promises to take in restabilizing the insurance industry in the state.

These are our picks for the top eight statewide offices. It’s a bi-partisan ticket, with four Democrats and four Republicans. We aren’t interested in supporting any particular party; we’re just looking for the best candidates to serve Mississippians for the next four years.

These are our suggestions, and now it’s up to you, the voters, to go to the polls and vote your convictions. The polls will be open Tuesday from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Vote responsibly.