Archive for the ‘Tate Reeves’ category

Billy Hewes “Back Then”

July 29, 2011

Besides his first ad with the minivan we would say this is the best ad we have seen from Billy.

Even though it’s almost all still pictures and we usually hate these kinds of ads.

The message brings this one through.

ROM Overall Grade: B+

-ROM

Phony “Log Cabin Republican” Endorsement letter floating around in Mississippi

July 27, 2011

***UPDATE*** This letter is absolutely fake

This was just emailed in and it looks bogus.  I doubt the Log Cabin Republicans are getting involved in the Mississippi Republican Primaries. Smells like someone is up to some dirty tricks.  The letter is not mentioned on their website: LOG CABIN REPUBLICANS

And the signature and the name of the executive director do not match.

We don’t appreciate this kind of dirty, nasty, underhanded politics so we are here to call this out, that’s why blogging can be a force for good.  If this letter is in fact fake and if anyone else received this please let us know.

-ROM

Billy Hewes “Testing”

July 26, 2011

Billy Hewes for Lt. Governor, new ad “Testing”

-ROM

Tate Reeves tosses up “Basketball”

July 26, 2011

New Ad from the Tate Reeves camp.

“Basketball”

-ROM

Bad Tate, Bad, Bad Tate

June 25, 2011

This new ad from Billy Hewes has us totally entertained, I am not sure if you can even call it a negative ad when there is a chihuahua in it.  Anyway the production value looks really good and the message,  although Tate Reeves probably does not like it will probably be somewhat effective.

Regardless of our feelings about this race we love ads and we REALLY LOVE attack ads.

Positive ads are so boring most of the time.

Political silly season just started.

Overall ROM Ad Grade: B+

We won / They won / Mississippi Won on Redistricting

May 17, 2011

The ink is barely dry on the 3 judge panel decision and there is already a back and forth on who won (Democrats of Republicans) over here at ROM we say that all of Mississippi won because right or wrong our Constitution stood strong and carried the day, the citizen legislators of Mississippi will have to come to a compromise on new districts and the courts and justice department will not be drawing our lines.

Congrats to all on the winning side.

View this document on Scribd

Democrats Claim Victory

Republicans Claim Victory

Kingfish Claims Victory for Delbert Hosemann

STATEMENT OF TREASURER TATE REEVES

ON TODAY’S REDISTRICTING RULING

 

May 16, 2011

“The court made the proper ruling today and followed the Mississippi Constitution, which calls for redistricting to occur the year after census data is released.  I applaud and congratulate Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann for his successful advocacy of the correct outcome in this matter.  Today’s ruling is a victory for local election officials and voters who won’t have to be rushed into contending with new maps and district lines this year, only to have them change again next year.”

###

We all win.

-ROM

Tate Reeves: Mississippi King of Campaign Cash 2011

May 12, 2011

Yep, that’s State Treasurer Tate Reeves who has apparently been making his fund-raising calls and it has paid off.

April 30 Report

$724,126.52 in the door this period

$2,100,473.21 CASH ON HAND

Seriously folks this is a candidate on a mission.

His opponent obviously worked had and has 1,169,744.00 but I cannot think of another candidate off had that has been outspent by a million dollars and won a primary in MS political history.

(if I am wrong please remind me)

If team Tate (Justin Brasell) spends their money wisely this race is over.

BUT,

A million dollars goes a long way in Mississippi, we could still have a race but I suspect Reeves is out front and doubt that Hewes can catch him.

Currently Handicapping this race at 75/25 Reeves

-ROM

Mississippi State Campaign Finance Reports for April 30th 2011

May 11, 2011

April 30 campaign finance reports were due today, generally these are the best indicator of who will win primaries for the statewide races as campaigns begin spending money very shortly, the April 30 reports are generally close to the high water mark for a primary campaign, many campaigns will raise more cash in the next 2 months but generally it gets harder as most have picked the low hanging fruit by now.

Cash on Hand is really all that matters so it is all we are reporting here:

GOV:

Dave Dennis: COH = $708,867.54

Phil Bryant: COH = $2,015,988.00

Bill Luckett: COH= $518,526.77

Johnny DuPree: COH= $82,752.66

Lt. GOV:

Tate Reeves: COH = $2,100,473.21

Billy Hewes: COH = $1,169,744.00

Attorney General:

Jim Hood: COH = $439,537.77

Steve Simpson: = $200,058.54

Secretary of State:

Delbert Hosemann: COH = $814,994.05

Ricky Dombrowski: = $10,847.61

State Treasurer:

Lucien Smith: COH = $427,476.00

Lynn Fitch: COH = $115,129.10

Lee Yancey: COH = $122,655.28

State Auditor:

Stacey Pickering: COH = $115,328.74

Agriculture Commissioner:

Max Phillips: COH = $136,594.08

Dannie Reed: COH = $8857.00

Cindy Hyde-Smith: COH = $37,302.50

Insurance Commissioner:

Mike Chaney: COH = $204,292.48

Updates as they become available.

-ROM

Mississippi Campaign Finance Report Day February, 2011

February 1, 2011

Who went big and who may be stumbling out of the gate.  Those are just a few of the questions that are so frequently answered by our State’s yearly campaign finance reports.  Political junkies and reporters have been camped out on Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann’s website all day to see who did well and who fell flat in the very first real indicator of campaign and organizational strength as we move into the 2011 election season.

2 things to check out:

1. COH = Cash On Hand available

2.  Total cash burned and total burn rate (ROM formula for Burn Rate is = TOTAL SPENT 2010/TOTAL RAISED 2010) The higher the number the worse the $ burn.  This can be confusing for candidates whom have just entered a race (see the State Treasurer race where 2 candidates reported $0 expenditures)

GOV:

Dave Dennis: COH = $527,199.73 BURN RATE = .522

Phil Bryant: COH = $2,023,993 BURN RATE = .321

Bill Luckett: COH= $350,622.88 BURN RATE = .279

Lt. GOV:

Tate Reeves: COH = $1,644,598.59 BURN RATE = .167

Billy Hewes: COH = $1,016,257.67 BURN RATE = .165

Attorney General:

Jim Hood: COH = $402,378.73 BURN RATE = .266

Steve Simpson: DID NOT FILE

Secretary of State:

Delbert Hosemann: COH = $532,261.11 BURN RATE = .209

State Treasurer:

Lucien Smith: COH = $256,549.00 BURN RATE = 0

Lynn Fitch: COH = $163,119.04 BURN RATE = 0

Lee Yancey: COH = $71,410.99 BURN RATE = .233

State Auditor:

Stacey Pickering: COH = $140,097.62 BURN RATE = .546

Agriculture Commissioner:

Max Phillips: COH = $106,389.41 BURN RATE = .123

Dannie Reed: COH = $4082.72 BURN RATE = 1.07

Cindy Hyde-Smith: COH = $6664.65 BURN RATE = .675

Insurance Commissioner:

Mike Chaney: COH = $195,264.00 BURN RATE = .230

Updates as they become available.

-ROM

ROM nails the statewide races with 4% Margin of Error

November 7, 2007

We are very proud of how we did in our “Pick em” challenge we NAILED the race for Governor within .3%

We went 7 for 8 on the winners picking Anderson to beat Chaney which obviously never happened

Listed are our predictions followed by actual outcome.  We did purty good I would say.

ROM PREDICTION:

Governor

Haley Barbour: 58.4%

John Arthur Eaves Jr: 41.6%

Actual:

Haley Barbour: 58.06%

John Arthur Eaves Jr: 41.9%

ROM CALL: CORRECT!!! WE NAILED THE GOVERNORS RACE

Missed it by just under 0.3%

 

Lt. Governor

Phil Bryant: 56.1%

Jamie Franks: 43.9%

Actual:

Phil Bryant: 58.7%

Jamie Franks: 41.3%

ROM Call: Correct!

Percentage: Missed on the tight side by 2.6%

Secretary of State

Delbert Hosemann: 55.9%

Rob Smith: 44.1%

Actual:

Delbert Hosemann: 58.6

Rob Smith: 41.4

ROM Call: Correct!

Percentage: Missed on the tight side by 2.7%

Attorney General

Jim Hood: 55.3%

Al Hopkins: 44.7%

Actual:

Jim Hood: 59.6%

Al Hopkins: 40.4%

ROM Call: Correct!

Percentage: Missed on the tight side by 4.3%

State Treasurer

Tate Reeves: 60.1%

Shawn O’Hara: 39.9%

Actual:

Tate Reeves: 60.7%

Shawn O’Hara: 39.3

ROM Call: Correct!

Percentage: NAILED THIS ONE TOO Missed on the tight side by 0.6%

State Auditor:

Stacey Pickering: 51.8%

Mike Sumrall: 48.2%

Actual:

Stacey Pickering: 55.2%

Mike Sumrall: 44.8%

ROM Call: Correct!

Percentage: Misssed on the tight side by 3.4%

Insurance Commissioner:

Gary Anderson: 51.0%

Mike Chaney: 49.0%

Actual:

Mike Chaney: 56.8%

Gary Anderson: 43.2%

ROM CALL: Incorrect…

Percentage: Underestimated Mike Chaney by 7.8%

Commissioner of Agriculture:

Lester Spell: 40.4%

Rickey Cole: 39.5%

Les Riley: 20.1%

Actual:

Lester Spell: 50.8%

Rickey Cole: 42.1%

Les Riley: 7.04%

ROM CALL: Correct

Percentage: Quite a bit off, I overestimated the beef plant effect on Spell and though it would push a larger chunk of his votes to Riley I underestimated Spell by 10.4%, was a lot closer on Cole who I only missed by 2.6%

ROM Goes 7 for 8 on 2007 Statewide Races with ON RECORD picks, our margins were closer to correct than any other on-record picks that we can find on the net. We had an average margin of Error on ALL PICKS of 4.08% OVERALL

As the years go on here at ROM we will continue this little exercise and keep a running tally

As it stands ROM’s pick em 2007 average is 88% correct on winners/losers with a 4.08% overall margin of error on the spread.

Not too shabby if we do say so ourself as we did pick 2 races dead on missing the exact percentage by less than 1%

How did ya’ll do?

-ROM