Swing State Project:: Expectations Game, Mississippi 2007

For those of you who dont know, the swing-state project is a far left national political blog: they have analysis up about Mississippi 2007 and they don’t sound very hopeful about the outcome.

I have to agree that the GOP ticket keeps looking better and better as we get closer to November 6th and the Democrat ticket keeps stumbling along seemingly unable to get their legs under them as a group.

Worth a read –ROM

Swing State Project:: Expectations Game, Mississippi 2007

(From the diaries. Share your thoughts on Mississippi’s 2007 elections here. – promoted by James L.)Louisiana has had their jungle primary and Democrats held on to the both chambers of the state legislature, the Lieutenant Governorship, and are heading into run offs for Agriculture Commissioner and Attorney General. Before these runoffs are held, Kentucky and Mississippi will have similar statewide elections on November 6. Additionally, New Jersey and Virginia will be electing large portions of their state legislatures. Going into these elections, I’d like us to have an opportunity to focus on these somewhat overlooked 2007 elections. Before going forward, I will admit that I am not an expert on any of these states and these threads are mostly here for feedback from the forum users. Today, I’ll focus on Mississippi.Mississippi will be voting for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General, State Auditor, State Treasurer, Agriculture and Commerce Commissioner, and Insurance Commissioner. Additionally the state legislature is up. Here’s a brief on each office. Governor Haley Barbour, former tobacco lobbyist, is seeking re-election as the Republican nominee. Barbour beat out incumbent Democrat, Ronnie Musgrove in 2003. Since then he has been received positively by the state, mostly due to what was seen as strong reaction to Hurricane Katrina (no doubt reinforced by Louisiana’s poor reaction). The Democrats have nominated John Arthur Eaves Jr. who, from what I have heard, has run hard on religion and performed well in debates while Barbour has appeared listless. Expect Barbour to win, but his margin of victory to be closer than expected. Lieutenant Governor Due to term limits, Republican Amy Tuck will not be seeking re-election. The Republicans have nominated 3 term State Auditor Phil Bryant. The Democrat is State Rep. Jaime Franks. Both candidates look to be highly engaged in this race. I have no idea who is favored, but I’d guess Bryant because he has been elected statewide before. Secretary of State Incumbent Democrat Eric Clark is retiring. Democrats have nominated Former State Senator Rob Smith. The Republicans have put forward Redstate favorite Delbert Hosemann who will keep those “dirty illegals” from voting. Delbert’s campaign looks much more engaged compared to Smith whos campaign looks nonexistent. Expect the Republicans to gain this one. Attorney General Incumbent Democrat Jim Hood is seeking re-election. The Republican candidate is Attorney Al Hopkins. Both sides appear engaged and Hopkins looks like he’s bringing abortion into the election. Both sides also look like they are getting REAL dirty as well. This one may be close, but I’d guess a Hood re-election is in store. State Auditor Phi Bryant is the Republican nominee for Lieutenant Governor, so it is an open seat race. Cousin to Congressman Chip, State Sen. Stacey Pickering is the Republican nominee. The Democrats have nominated communty activist Todd Brand. This one got away from us and will stay with the Republicans. Treasurer Republican Tate Reeves is seeking re-election and the Democrats have frequent candidate Shawn O’Hara. This one is staying theirs. Agriculture and Commerce Republican Lester Spell is seeking re-election. Former Democratic State Chair Rickey Cole is our guy. This is the only race where the Democrat seems more engaged than the Republican. If we upset any race this is it, but the Republican is still favored. A candidate from the Constitution Party may make the difference for us. Insurance Commissioner DFA endorsed and ex-state fiscal officer Gary Anderson defeated incumbent Democrat George Dale in the primary, so this can be considered an open seat race. The Republicans have nominated Mike Chaney. Anderson looks a bit more engaged, but, and I REALLY hate to say this, expect race may be a factor and we may lose it on that alone, issues be damned! I’d say this leans Republican, but we still have chance. State Senate A pair of Democrats defected earlier this year and gave control of the legislature to the Republicans. The current Composition is 27 Republicans-25 Democrats. I expect the Republicans may have some coattails from many of their top of the ballot races and gain a tad to expand their majorities. State House The DLCC website states the Mississippi State House has a 74-48 Democratic majority. Expect our majroity to shrink due to coattails, but Democrats to stay in command. Summary Republicans will keep the statewide seats they already have, however the race for Governor and Lieutenant Governor may be closer than we could have previously hoped for. The Agriculture Commissioner may flip Democratic, however it is unlikely Democrats can also expect to lose the Secretary of State. Our bright side appears that, while it will be close, we should hold onto the Attorney General, barely, and the State House. While Insurance Commissioner will probably flip Republican, we do have fighting chance of holding it. Please, comment, and tell me your thoughts on Mississippi. I’ll have more of these up before Nov 6 on New Jersey, Virginia, and Kentucky.

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